El potencial de contracción de gamma de Bitcoin: una prórroga por $300 millones y el camino hacia una volatilidad en aumento

Bitcoin's price has been locked in a narrow $85,000–$90,000 range for weeks, a mechanical construct driven by concentrated options gamma exposure. This range-bound behavior is not a natural market equilibrium but a product of dealer hedging dynamics, where large put gamma near $85,000 acts as a floor and heavy call gamma near $90,000 caps rallies according to analysis. With $27 billion in open interest set to expire on December 26-primarily on Deribit-the stage is set for a pivotal market event. This expiry, skewed to the upside, could trigger a gamma squeeze, a phenomenon where dealers' hedging activity amplifies price movement in a single direction.

The Mechanics of the Gamma Squeeze

Gamma, a second-order derivative in options trading, measures the rate of change of delta. High gamma exposure forces market makers to dynamically hedge their positions, buying dips and selling rallies to maintain delta neutrality. In Bitcoin's case, this has created a self-reinforcing loop: dealers purchase Bitcoin near $85,000 to hedge short put positions, while selling near $90,000 to hedge short calls. The result is a mechanical "trap" that suppresses volatility. However, as gamma and delta decay ahead of expiry, these stabilizing forces weaken, increasing the likelihood of a breakout.

The max pain theory further reinforces this dynamic. According to a report by KuCoin, the max pain point for the December 26 expiry is estimated at $96,000, where the majority of options expire worthless, minimizing payouts to holders. This creates a structural bias for Bitcoin to gravitate toward higher levels as dealers seek to minimize losses. Historical data from the November 2025 expiry-where Bitcoin traded near $91,700 with a max pain level at $91,500-demonstrates how concentrated open interest can pin prices.

Timing Strategies and Trader Behavior

Traders are adopting defensive strategies to navigate the expiry. Rolling put spreads into January is one such tactic, allowing participants to retain downside protection while avoiding the liquidity vacuum post-expiry. Meanwhile, liquidity providers are closely monitoring order-book depth and delta hedging flows, anticipating sharp price swings as hedging positions unwind. Key levels to watch include the gamma flip point at $88,000 and the $90,616 threshold, which could signal the strength of bullish momentum.

Historical patterns from late 2025 show that dealer gamma exposure-13 times greater than ETF flows has dominated price action. As this expiry nears, the mechanical suppression of volatility is expected to wane, freeing Bitcoin to respond to organic demand. A successful defense of $85,000 support could catalyze a move toward $100,000, while a breakdown below this level might accelerate a decline.

Post-Expiry Outlook and Catalysts

The December 26 expiry represents a turning point. With 54% of total gamma exposure set to expire, dealers will no longer be compelled to hedge within the $85k–$90k range. This liquidity vacuum could amplify the impact of macroeconomic catalysts, such as ETF inflows or the quantum policy tailwind mentioned in BW Businessworld. Additionally, Q1 2026's $100M close unlocking of PIPE funding could further influence Bitcoin's trajectory.

However, risks remain. If Bitcoin retreats to the $80,000–$82,000 range, a short-term rebound might occur due to bullish divergence in capital inflows. Yet, bearish sentiment and fragile capital inflows suggest a limited, short-term rebound rather than a sustained bullish trend.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's $300M expiry event is a textbook example of options-driven market mechanics. The interplay of gamma, delta decay, and max pain dynamics creates a high-probability scenario for a breakout. Traders who recognize the timing of gamma decay and monitor key levels stand to capitalize on the volatility. As the December 26 expiry approaches, the market's focus will shift from mechanical constraints to organic demand, with the potential for a 20% gamma squeeze effect reshaping Bitcoin's short-term trajectory.