Bitcoin Gains 30% in Q2, Reaches $109,000 Despite Trump Budget Bill

Bitcoin experienced a robust week, concluding the second quarter with nearly 30% gains and trading around $109,000 by July 4th, nearing its all-time highs. The price briefly dipped to around $105,000 midweek following the Senate’s approval of Donald Trump’s $5 trillion budget legislation, but it quickly rebounded.

Analysts are divided on the short-term outlook. Standard Chartered maintains a positive view with a $200,000 year-end target, while BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warns of a potential dip to $90,000 before another rally.

The major political development this week was the passage of Trump’s $5 trillion legislation, dubbed “One Big Beautiful Bill.” This legislation makes the 2017 individual tax cuts permanent, lifts the debt ceiling, and rolls back programs such as Medicaid expansion and green energy incentives. After a narrow vote in the Senate on July 1st, the House approved the bill on July 3rd, following a lengthy Democratic debate. Trump is expected to sign the bill on July 4th.

The crypto market initially reacted with temporary weakness. However, many view the bill’s inflationary impact and the ballooning US debt as long-term bullish signs for Bitcoin. Similar fiscal stimulus packages in the past, such as the 2020 COVID relief efforts, led to sharp crypto market rallies. Hence, some analysts believe that this could be a comparable setup.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk criticized the bill’s cuts to clean energy and its impact on federal debt. He even suggested that he might create a third political party in response. Trump retaliated, suggesting Musk could face deportation, escalating tensions between the two.

Other notable developments include the removal of a crypto tax relief amendment, which disappointed miners and stakers. However, discussions around a US strategic Bitcoin reserve continue to gain momentum.

While Bitcoin is currently holding strong, regulatory uncertainty, macro shifts, and political risks remain key variables for the coming weeks.