Bitcoin Faces 6% S&P 500 Decline Risk, Analysts Warn of $10,000 Drop

Bitcoin experienced a relatively stable weekend following a tumultuous week that saw it surge to an intraday high of $85,220 on Friday, only to face modest fluctuations thereafter. The recent market movements and mixed fundamentals have sparked a divide among analysts, with some remaining optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential recovery while others warn of a potential collapse to $10,000.

Mike McGlone, a senior commodity strategist, issued a cautionary note about Bitcoin’s downside risks. He highlighted macroeconomic factors and market trends that could lead to a severe decline. In a tweet on Friday, McGlone questioned whether Bitcoin could revisit $10,000, drawing attention to the rising price of gold and potential market headwinds. He noted that gold has increased by about 15% in 2025 to March 13, similar to the decline in Bitcoin, and wondered what could stop these trajectories.

McGlone also pointed to a potential 6% decline in the S&P 500 as a key risk factor, suggesting that the current market cycle could mirror the speculative bubble seen 25 years ago. In an interview, he emphasized the appeal of traditional safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty. “Treasuries and gold are still the primary safe-haven plays,” he explained, highlighting gold’s recent rally to $3,000 an ounce as evidence of growing investor caution. He also suggested that a broader market downturn could accelerate Bitcoin’s decline, stating, “The riskiest assets are cryptos… I can point out that Bitcoin’s peak looks to be around $100,000, which is why gold continues to go up.”

McGlone is not the only analyst predicting further downside for Bitcoin. Earlier this week, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, suggested that Bitcoin could drop to $70,000 before staging a recovery. According to Hayes, a 36% correction from Bitcoin’s peak of $110,000 would be “normal for a bull market.” He argued that Bitcoin’s next major rally would likely depend on worsening macroeconomic conditions and potential monetary policy shifts from major central banks.

Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, suggested that Bitcoin may enter a prolonged consolidation phase after reaching its recent all-time high. He noted that Bitcoin’s current technical structure resembles a “high flag” pattern, a formation that typically signals bullish continuation. However, he warned that signs of weakness within the pattern indicate market uncertainty, making it unclear whether Bitcoin will sustain its uptrend or face further corrections.

Despite the warnings, not all analysts foresee a steep drop. On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin is nearing an “oversold” zone, with its MVRV ratio falling to 1.8, close to the 2024 correction low of 1.71. According to the firm, if Bitcoin fell to $70,000, it could present a favorable entry point for investors and spark a rebound.

At the time of reporting, BTC was trading at $84,418, reflecting a 0.77% surge in the past 24 hours. The market remains divided, with some analysts predicting a significant drop while others see potential for recovery. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining the direction of Bitcoin’s price, as macroeconomic factors and market trends continue to influence its trajectory.