Las dinámicas macroeconómicas del Bitcoin: ¿Por qué el ciclo de 4 años está perdiendo su relevancia en 2026?

Bitcoin's price behavior in 2026 is increasingly decoupling from the historical four-year cycle framework that once defined its market rhythms. Traditionally, halving events-where Bitcoin's block reward is cut by 50%-have triggered cyclical bull and bear phases, with price peaks typically emerging 12–18 months post-halving. However, the 2024 halving, which occurred on April 20, 2024, has already disrupted this pattern. By October 2025, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,210, but its post-halving rally of 97% was far smaller than the 300–400% surges seen in prior cycles. This deviation is not a failure of Bitcoin's scarcity narrative but a reflection of a maturing market where institutional adoption and macroeconomic forces are reshaping its trajectory.

The Breakdown of the 4-Year Cycle

Historically, Bitcoin's four-year cycle was driven by retail speculation and the interplay between halving events and supply scarcity. The 2024 cycle, however, has been fundamentally altered by institutional capital inflows. As noted by Caleb and Brown, the entry of institutional investors has tempered volatility, with Bitcoin's annualized realized volatility dropping below 150%-a stark contrast to the 200–300% levels of earlier cycles. This shift is evident in the subdued post-halving rally: while Bitcoin doubled from its $64,000 halving price to over $109,000, the absence of a sharp, speculative spike suggests a more measured accumulation phase.

Grayscale's 2026 Digital Asset Outlook underscores this transformation, predicting that the four-year cycle will "break" by mid-2026 as institutional demand stabilizes Bitcoin's price and extends its cycle beyond four years. Regulatory clarity, including the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, has enabled systematic institutional allocation, reducing the reliance on retail-driven momentum. This institutionalization has also diversified Bitcoin's use cases, with projects like Bitcoin Hyper (a Solana-based Layer-2 solution) expanding its utility without altering its core protocol.

Macroeconomic Shifts and Fed Policy Alignment

Bitcoin's alignment with broader financial market trends is another key factor eroding the relevance of the four-year cycle. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has become a critical determinant of Bitcoin's price dynamics. In late 2025, the Fed's pivot toward rate cuts and the end of quantitative tightening injected liquidity into risk assets, stabilizing Bitcoin's price around $93,000 in early 2026. This level, a key technical threshold, reflects a confluence of macroeconomic easing and institutional buying.

Data from 2026 indicates that Bitcoin's price is increasingly sensitive to U.S. monetary policy. For instance, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December 2025 meeting spurred renewed bullish momentum, with Bitcoin consolidating near $93k–$94k. This alignment with Fed policy mirrors traditional asset classes like equities and real estate, where liquidity conditions dictate valuation. Analysts at 21Shares argue that Bitcoin's integration into Wall Street's portfolio strategies-driven by spot ETF inflows and regulatory clarity-has made it a "fear asset" during geopolitical uncertainty, a role traditionally reserved for gold.

Technical Analysis and Strategic Entry Points

The $93,000 level serves as a microcosm of Bitcoin's evolving macro dynamics. As of January 2026, Bitcoin is consolidating near this price, with key support at $89,750 and resistance at $94,000–$94,800. Technical indicators suggest a potential breakout if institutional demand and liquidity conditions remain robust. This level is particularly significant because it aligns with broader macroeconomic trends: the Fed's rate-cut cycle, expanding institutional ETF inflows, and the maturation of Bitcoin's infrastructure.

For investors, the $93,000 level represents a strategic entry point. Unlike past cycles, where retail-driven volatility created unpredictable entry windows, the current environment offers a more structured opportunity. Vanguard's decision to allow crypto ETF and mutual fund trading, for example, has expanded access for millions of investors, further stabilizing demand. Meanwhile, BlackRock's Larry Fink has acknowledged Bitcoin's role as a hedge against geopolitical risks, signaling growing acceptance among traditional asset managers.

The Road Ahead: A New Paradigm

While the four-year cycle may be losing relevance, Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals remain intact. Institutional adoption, regulatory progress, and macroeconomic alignment have created a foundation for sustained growth. However, risks persist, including potential ETF outflows, regulatory shifts (such as the pending MSCI ruling), and security vulnerabilities in the ecosystem.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin's price trajectory will likely be shaped by the interplay of institutional demand and Fed policy. Projections from JPMorgan and Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse suggest price targets ranging from $150,000 to $250,000 by mid-2026, driven by continued liquidity expansion and deeper Wall Street integration. The $93,000 level, therefore, is not just a technical milestone but a harbinger of a new era where Bitcoin's value is dictated by macroeconomic forces rather than cyclical speculation.