Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP: Technical Breakouts as Gateways to Short-Term Recovery

The cryptocurrency market has entered a critical juncture in November 2025, with Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP (XRP) all exhibiting bearish technical signals. However, beneath the surface of declining prices and oversold indicators lies a complex interplay of Fibonacci retracement levels, RSI divergences, and MACD crossovers that could signal potential turning points for short-term recovery. This analysis explores how traders and investors might position themselves to capitalize on these dynamics, leveraging technical analysis and market sentiment to identify actionable opportunities.

Bitcoin: A Test of Resilience at Key Support Levels

Bitcoin's price has retreated below $100,000, trading near $99,300 as of November 2025, having rejected critical Fibonacci retracement levels such as the $106,453 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC stands at 35, indicating strong bearish momentum, while the MACD has shown a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward trend. If BTC continues its decline, it could test the $95,000 psychological level, a threshold that has historically acted as a floor during prior corrections.

However, Fibonacci retracement levels offer a roadmap for potential rebounds. The 38.2% retracement level at $97,000 has become a pivotal battleground, with a break below this level signaling further downside toward $92,000. Conversely, a recovery above $98,000 could reinvigorate bullish momentum, potentially pushing BTC toward the $100,000 mark.

Open interest data from Deribit also highlights resistance at $120,000 and $200,000, though these are long-term targets according to market analysis. For short-term traders, the immediate focus remains on whether BTC can stabilize above $95,000 to avoid a deeper correction.

Ethereum: Bearish Momentum and the Path to Recovery

Ethereum has faced a notable correction, dropping below $3,592 after testing a key resistance level and currently hovering around $3,200. Its RSI is below 50, confirming bearish momentum, while the MACD suggests indecision among traders. If ETH continues to fall, it may target $3,017 according to technical analysis, a level that could trigger further liquidation pressure.

Fibonacci retracement levels provide a framework for potential recovery. A close above $3,200 could see ETH test the 50-day EMA at $3,868, while a breakdown below $3,170 would extend the decline toward $3,017. On the weekly chart, key resistance levels at $4,115 and $4,369 remain distant, but a sustained rally above $3,200 could reignite bullish sentiment. Notably, Ethereum's exchange balances are at a decade low, suggesting reduced selling pressure and a potential catalyst for a rebound if buyers step in.

XRP: A Fragile Balance Between Bearish and Bullish Forces

XRP has broken below the $2.35 support level, trading near $2.30 and facing the risk of a deeper correction toward $1.96. Its RSI is also below 50, indicating bearish momentum, while the MACD remains indecisive. However, Fibonacci retracement levels offer a nuanced outlook. The $2.17 level has emerged as critical support amid an 18% monthly decline, with a close above $2.22 potentially confirming a bullish reversal and triggering a Wave-5 expansion according to Elliott Wave analysis.

If XRP fails to hold $2.17, it risks a retest of lower support levels such as $2.10 and $1.98. On the other hand, a recovery above $2.53 could see XRP extend its rally toward its 50-day EMA. Open interest data from Deribit highlights resistance at $2.80 and $5.00, with the $5.00 strike being deeply out-of-the-money according to market analysis. For short-term traders, the key is whether XRP can stabilize above $2.17 to avoid a cascade of further losses.

Market Sentiment and Actionable Insights

The broader market sentiment remains cautiously bearish, with technical indicators across BTC, ETH, and XRP pointing to potential short-term declines. However, Fibonacci retracement levels and key resistance/support zones offer clear inflection points for recovery. For investors positioning for a rebound, the following strategies could be considered: 1. BTC: Monitor the $95,000 support level. A successful defense here could trigger a short-term rally toward $98,000. 2. ETH: Watch for a close above $3,200 to reinvigorate bullish momentum. 3. XRP: Focus on the $2.17 support level. A breakout above $2.22 could signal a Wave-5 expansion.

Traders should also remain vigilant about liquidity sweeps below critical levels, particularly for XRP, where continued pressure below $2.10 could lead to deeper corrections.

Conclusion

While the near-term outlook for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP remains bearish, technical analysis reveals key levels where market sentiment could shift. By closely monitoring Fibonacci retracement levels, RSI divergences, and MACD signals, investors can position themselves to capitalize on potential breakouts. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether these cryptocurrencies can stabilize and initiate a short-term recovery.