Bitcoin Enters 'Strength' Phase, but $100K Debate Heats Up Between Traders

Bitcoin (BTC) rose 1.6% to $92,730 on Monday, breaking a near four-week high, as geopolitical tensions and speculation over the U.S. military actions in Venezuela drove renewed interest in the crypto market. The U.S. launched airstrikes in Venezuela and removed its president, sparking concerns over potential control of Venezuela's reported crypto reserves, estimated at 600,000 BTC. Analysts highlighted that if these assets were frozen or seized, it could reduce circulating supply and strengthen a bullish outlook for Bitcoin according to reports.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin remained below its record high of $126,223 reached in October 2025. After a volatile end to 2025, the market faces a crucial 2026, with analysts divided on whether the price will rally or face a deep pullback. Factors such as monetary policy, liquidity, and regulation are expected to shape its trajectory.

The recent move above $90,000 suggests a potential short-term upward trend, with some analysts noting a golden cross as a positive indicator on shorter timeframes. However, the market remains cautious, with key technical indicators like the MACD showing a bearish crossover and the SuperTrend issuing a sell signal.

Why Did This Happen?

The U.S. military action in Venezuela triggered speculation about the impact on global crypto supply. Venezuela is believed to hold a large, unofficial Bitcoin reserve, potentially valued between $55 billion and $60 billion, used to circumvent U.S. and EU sanctions. If the U.S. seizes these assets, it could create a meaningful supply shock, potentially strengthening long-term bullish sentiment.

The move also coincided with broader risk-on market sentiment, as global stock indices and other risk assets rose. PwC's expansion into crypto auditing and improved regulatory clarity, especially in the stablecoin sector, added further support to the market.

How Did Markets Respond?

Bitcoin's price rebound was accompanied by a broader crypto market rally, with Ethereum and smaller cryptocurrencies like XRP and Solana also rising. The total crypto market cap increased by 5% in a few days, retaking the $3 trillion level. However, volatility remains high, and Bitcoin is still trading well below its October peak.

Technical indicators show a mixed picture. While short-term momentum appears to be shifting, long-term trends remain bearish. The weekly chart indicates Bitcoin has fallen below its 50-week moving average, a pattern historically associated with bear markets.

Institutional demand has weakened, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing net outflows in recent weeks. This decline in buying pressure has contributed to the price's consolidation phase between $85,500 and $90,000.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Market watchers are closely monitoring how key macroeconomic factors evolve in 2026. Analysts like Fabian Dori at Sygnum Bank see potential for a constructive phase in early 2026, driven by improving macroeconomic conditions and easing liquidity concerns.

However, bearish indicators persist. Polymarket data shows a 25% chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year-end but also an 80% probability of falling to $75,000 during the year according to analysis.

Regulatory clarity remains a critical factor. The Genius Act, which brought oversight to stablecoins in the U.S., has improved institutional confidence, but further regulatory developments could influence investor sentiment.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy and potential interest rate decisions in early 2026 will also be crucial. While the odds of a rate cut in January remain low, ongoing liquidity injections into financial markets could support risk-on assets, including Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's whale activity is also under scrutiny. Recent on-chain data shows increased selling pressure from large holders, with significant BTC transfers to exchanges. This suggests that some market participants are locking in gains and reducing exposure according to on-chain analysis.

The debate over whether Bitcoin is entering another "crypto winter" continues. While some see a return to multi-month periods of stagnation, others argue that structural changes in the market, such as ETF adoption and institutional investment, may prevent a repeat of prior cycles according to industry analysis.

Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, remains bullish, expecting Bitcoin to reach $150,000 as 2026 begins. His company's Bitcoin portfolio, worth $61.4 billion, has seen a 21.74% gain so far according to company reports.

Bitcoin's price trajectory in early 2026 remains a focal point for traders and investors. While the recent rebound has raised hopes of a sustained rally, the broader market remains cautious. With geopolitical, regulatory, and technical factors all in play, the coming weeks will be critical in shaping Bitcoin's next move.