Bitcoin's Elliott Wave Breakout: A $164K Target by Early December

The Bitcoin price action in Q3 2025 has ignited a firestorm of bullish sentiment among technical analysts, with Elliott Wave theory and macroeconomic indicators converging on a singular thesis: a $164,000 target by early December. This analysis unpacks the mechanics of the breakout, the timing framework, and the technical underpinnings that validate this ambitious projection.

The Elliott Wave Framework: A Structural Breakout

Bitcoin's price trajectory since mid-2023 has been characterized by a textbook "Mid Bull" phase of a four-year cycle, with the asset now entering the final leg of its impulsive wave structure. An Investing.com analysis finds Bitcoin is currently in the red W-v of the black W-5, with the green W-3 wave targeting $155,000 via a 2.618x Fibonacci extension and the green W-5 wave projected to reach $164,000 assuming a 3.000x extension. This aligns with broader historical patterns, as Bitcoin has historically peaked 18 months post-halving-a timeline that dovetails with the December 2025 target, according to a BitcoinNewsToday analysis.

Key price levels to monitor include the $121.5k threshold, which acts as a confirmation of continued bullish momentum. A sustained close above this level would validate the continuation of the third wave, with $135k and $142k as intermediate targets before the final push toward $164k, as noted in a j2tx analysis. Recent price action has already seen Bitcoin test these levels, with the orange W-2 wave bottoming out at $108,664-just 1.1% below the ideal target zone-before surging past $126,287, an all-time high, as an Investing.com article also reported.

Technical Indicators: Momentum and Liquidity Alignment

Beyond wave counts, Bitcoin's technical indicators are flashing green. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) has surged in tandem with price, signaling strong institutional accumulation. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has hovered in the mid-30s, suggesting near-oversold conditions and a potential relief rally, per a SpotedCrypto review. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also showing a bullish crossover, reinforcing the likelihood of a momentum shift; SpotedCrypto further details these indicator signals. However, a backtest of the MACD Golden Cross strategy from 2022 to 2025 reveals mixed results: while the average 30-day return was +4.01%, the win rate stabilized at 49%, indicating no strong edge (Backtest results: MACD Golden Cross strategy (2022-2025)).

On-chain metrics further corroborate the bullish case. The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) and Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flows indicate long-term accumulation by experienced holders, while the MVRV Z-Score suggests the recent pullback from $100k to $75k is a healthy correction rather than a bear market, according to a Bitcoin Magazine article. These signals, combined with Bitcoin testing the 200-day EMA around $80k, paint a picture of a market primed for a breakout.

Risk Management: Warning Levels and Contingencies

No analysis is complete without addressing risks. A breakdown below $111.9k could trigger a corrective (b) wave, with short-term bearish setups emerging if Bitcoin fails to decisively break above $113.5k, per an Elliott Wave Trader note. However, the alignment of Elliott Wave counts with global liquidity trends-such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's dovish pivot and the surge in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows-suggests that even a pullback would likely be shallow and temporary, according to a FinnoExpert analysis.

Conclusion: A Confluence of Cycles and Sentiment

The $164k target by early December is not a shot in the dark but a synthesis of structural, cyclical, and technical forces. As Bitcoin enters the final act of its impulsive wave, traders and investors must stay attuned to key levels and macroeconomic catalysts. The next few weeks will be critical: a breakout above $121.5k could accelerate the countdown to $164k, while a failure to hold above $111.9k would force a reevaluation of the thesis.

For now, the cards are stacked in favor of the bulls.