Bitcoin's Easing Long-Term Holder Pressure and Its Implications for Market Stability

Bitcoin’s market dynamics in 2025 are increasingly shaped by the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs), whose on-chain activity offers critical insights into the cryptocurrency’s stability and trajectory. Recent data reveals a nuanced picture: while LTHs have engaged in significant profit-taking, the pressure they exert on the market appears to be easing, suggesting a potential shift toward equilibrium. This analysis explores the interplay of on-chain metrics like the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) and Unrealized Profit and Loss (URPD) with historical cyclical patterns to assess Bitcoin’s current state and future stability.

The SOPR Signal: Profit-Taking Without Panic

Bitcoin’s SOPR for LTHs has surged to record highs, reaching 2.5 in 2025 but remaining below the critical 4.0 threshold historically associated with bull market peaks [2]. This metric, which measures the average profit or loss of spent outputs, indicates that LTHs are realizing gains but not engaging in widespread distribution. For instance, on September 1, 2025, LTHs spent approximately 97,000 BTC in a single day—the largest such move of the year—yet this activity is described as “normal” within the current cycle [3].

Comparisons to historical cycles (2017 and 2021) reveal a consistent pattern: SOPR rises during bull markets and peaks during late-stage distribution phases [4]. However, the current SOPR of ~1.30 (adjusted for volatility) [1] suggests a more controlled profit-taking environment than the sharp spikes seen in prior cycles. This stability is further reinforced by the SOPR’s narrow oscillation range (1.0–1.04) over the past six months, even as Bitcoin’s price hit all-time highs [3]. Such behavior implies that demand remains robust enough to absorb LTH selling pressure without triggering a collapse in price.

URPD and the Filling of the "Air Gap"

The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric provides another lens into Bitcoin’s stability. Recent data shows investors filling the $108k–$116k “air gap” through dip-buying, a constructive sign for long-term sentiment [1]. This gap, representing a period of inactivity in Bitcoin’s price history, is now being absorbed by new buyers, suggesting a maturing market structure.

Historically, URPD patterns during bull-to-bear transitions (e.g., 2017 and 2021) indicated the accumulation of unrealized gains by LTHs before major price movements [4]. Today, Bitcoin’s URPD holds a critical support level at $83,444, which analysts argue is essential for maintaining stability [1]. While direct comparisons to 2017 and 2021 remain speculative due to limited data, the current URPD trajectory aligns with a market in consolidation rather than panic.

Easing LTH Pressure and Market Resilience

Post-September 1, 2025, on-chain indicators suggest that LTH selling pressure is normalizing. The Liveliness metric, which tracks the preference of investors between HODLing and spending, has stabilized near 2021 lows, reflecting a strong accumulation bias [5]. Additionally, Bitcoin’s network holds ~$1.2 trillion in unrealized profits with minimal losses, underscoring the resilience of LTHs [5].

This resilience contrasts with the extreme distribution seen in November 2022, when LTH selling spiked to unprecedented levels [1]. The current cycle’s controlled profit-taking—driven by strategic rebalancing and portfolio diversification—has instead facilitated a healthy transfer of coins from “strong hands” to new investors [1]. This dynamic supports liquidity and reduces the risk of a sudden price collapse.

Implications for Market Stability

The interplay of SOPR and URPD metrics, combined with historical cyclical patterns, points to a market in transition but not in crisis. While Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase between $104k and $114k, the absence of euphoric SOPR levels and the filling of the $108k–$116k gap suggest that the market is building a foundation for future appreciation [1].

However, risks persist. A break below the $104k support level could reignite bearish momentum, particularly if ETF inflows continue to slow [1]. Conversely, sustained demand—driven by institutional adoption or macroeconomic factors—could push Bitcoin into a new bull phase, with LTHs acting as stabilizing forces rather than destabilizing ones.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s current market environment reflects a delicate balance between profit-taking and accumulation. On-chain analytics reveal that LTH pressure, while elevated, is easing within historical norms, and the market’s structure appears resilient. For investors, this suggests a cautious optimism: the path forward may involve further consolidation, but the absence of extreme metrics and the constructive behavior of LTHs indicate that Bitcoin’s long-term stability is intact.

Source:
[1] Accumulating in the Gap [https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-35-2025/]
[2] Bitcoin's SOPR Metric For Long-Term Holders Climbs To Record Highs In 2025 [https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-979036-20250723]
[3] Bitcoin BTC On-Chain Alert: Long-Term Holders Spent Approximately 97k BTC in One Day [https://blockchain.news/flashnews/bitcoin-btc-on-chain-alert-long-term-holders-spent-approximately-97k-btc-in-one-day-largest-2025-lth-move-per-glassnode]
[4] Weekly MacroSlate: Rising US dollar – The impact of high inflation, high energy and rising rates on Bitcoin price [https://cryptoslate.com/market-reports/weekly-macroslate-rising-us-dollar-the-impact-of-high-inflation-high-energy-and-rising-rates-on-bitcoin-price/]
[5] On-chain analysis week 27/2025: Is the psychology of LTH and STH fear or expectation [https://www.hccventure.com/en/on-chain-analysis-week-272025-is-the-psychology-of-lth-and-sth-fear-or-expectation]