Bitcoin Drops 4.8% After Trump Tariff Announcement

Bitcoin's price has experienced a significant shift following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 30% tariff on EU and Mexican imports, which has triggered mixed reactions across risk assets. After breaking above $122,000 earlier this week, Bitcoin faced rejection near the upper boundary of a major volume resistance zone, leading to a decline of over 4.8% from its recent highs. As of the latest update, Bitcoin is trading around $117,200.

Bitcoin's price dynamics have been closely monitored, with a breakout on July 11 rallying over $15,000 to test $123,236, a key supply zone. However, the price failed to hold above $122,000 and quickly reversed below $118,000 on the 4-hour chart. This breakdown occurred after a clean rejection from the upper Bollinger Band and a flip in the 4-hour Supertrend indicator at $121,563. The price has now returned to the Bollinger mean near $117,300, with support sitting just below around $115,700.

The current price action sits in a high-consolidation range where buyers must defend $115,000–$117,000 to avoid cascading lower. The question of why Bitcoin's price is going down today is closely tied to a confluence of technical exhaustion and weakening derivatives positioning. Despite derivatives volume rising over 31% to $147.18B, open interest fell 1.81% to $86.11B, a clear sign of long liquidations. Nearly $181M in positions were wiped in 24 hours, with $39.6M of that being shorts and $141.7M from longs, indicating overleveraged buyers being flushed.

Adding to the bearish pressure is the continued outflow from spot markets. July 15 saw a net outflow of $477.9 million, suggesting large holders are taking profit or de-risking. This outflow trend has persisted even during the rally, indicating a structural imbalance in real demand. The Supertrend indicator turned bearish at $121,563 after holding bullish throughout the early July rally. This flip coincided with the first candle close below the previous swing high structure, adding to the bearish outlook. Further, the DMI on the 4-hour chart shows -DI crossing above +DI, with ADX holding firm at 27.27, confirming growing trend strength in favor of sellers.

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin price volatility appears to have flipped direction. The Bollinger Bands, which had expanded on the breakout, are now beginning to contract again, often signaling a cooling phase or transition. Additionally, the EMAs on the 4-hour chart show early signs of clustering. The 20 EMA is beginning to slope downward at $118,334, while the 50 and 100 EMAs at $115,408 and $112,471 respectively are likely to act as dynamic support if current levels fail. The RSI on the 30-minute chart remains below 50, and MACD continues to print red bars, suggesting near-term price weakness may persist unless bulls reclaim $119,000 decisively.

Bitcoin price today is trading just above the critical demand block between $115,500 and $117,000. If bulls hold this zone, a bounce toward $119,000–$120,000 remains possible, especially if funding rates stay positive and the funding-weighted OI stabilizes. On the upside, a move back above $122,000 would invalidate the current breakdown structure and reopen the path toward $125,000. However, this scenario requires strong volume and derivatives reaccumulation, both of which are absent at the moment. If sellers extend the rejection, the next major support lies at $112,400 followed by the structural breakout zone at $107,700. A breakdown below that region could trigger a deeper retest of $103,800 and even $99,800 based on daily trendlines.

With sentiment neutralizing and intraday indicators favoring sellers, traders should watch for volatility spikes near $117K–$118K and how Bitcoin reacts to the rising demand zone around $115,000. The current technical indicators and market dynamics suggest a cautious outlook for Bitcoin's price in the near term, with key support and resistance levels to monitor closely.