Bitcoin Drops 3.9% Amid Macro Uncertainties Despite Bullish Hash Ribbon Signal

Bitcoin’s price has recently garnered attention due to the activation of a historically reliable on-chain signal—the Hash Ribbon indicator. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $84,500 after experiencing a 3.9% drop over the past 24 hours, influenced by broader macroeconomic uncertainties. The Hash Ribbon, which assesses miner stress and recovery using 30-day and 60-day hash rate moving averages, has now flashed its eighth major buy signal in Bitcoin’s history. This signal, developed by Charles Edwards, occurs when the 30-day moving average crosses above the 60-day moving average, indicating that miner capitulation has likely ended. Historically, Bitcoin has not dropped lower in 85% of previous cases following this signal. Market commentators, including Bitcoin Archive, have noted that in all seven prior instances, Bitcoin rallied significantly post-signal, with no false triggers.

Despite the optimism surrounding the Hash Ribbon signal, technical analysts remain divided. Tony Severino, a Chartered Market Technician, has flagged bearish divergences between price action and momentum indicators. He noted that Bitcoin is making higher highs while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) posts lower highs, which is not a bullish sign. Bitcoin remains below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $86,000, reinforcing a short-term bearish structure. The RSI sits around 36, rebounding from oversold levels but lacking momentum. Unless Bitcoin breaks above $86,800, recovery remains uncertain.

Even with the bullish on-chain signal, macroeconomic forces continue to influence the market. Strong U.S. economic data, such as the revised Q4 GDP of 3.4% and declining jobless claims, supports a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, dampening appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, geopolitical tensions are rising with proposed 25% auto tariffs set for April 2. While gold surged to an all-time high of $3,059 on the news, Bitcoin has not mirrored the safe-haven rally. This divergence has led some to question Bitcoin’s role as digital gold. Jamie Coutts of Real Vision noted that while Hash Ribbons are a solid signal, broader conditions are not aligning like previous cycles. With Wall Street returning post-holiday and ETF flows stabilizing, the short-term direction of Bitcoin may depend on its reaction to upcoming inflation data.

Bitcoin is currently stabilizing near $84,500 after a sharp drop, finding short-term support at $83,000. The RSI is rebounding from oversold levels, hinting at fading bearish momentum. However, Bitcoin remains below the 50-EMA at $86,000, keeping the near-term bias bearish. The upside target is a break above $86,800, which could trigger a rally toward $88,800. Conversely, a drop below $83,000 may expose $81,200. The market tone is cautious, with a daily volume of $34 billion and a 2.86% drop. Bitcoin is consolidating in a narrowing range, with macro catalysts likely to dictate the next move.