Bitcoin Drops 24% From January Peak As Bull Cycle Nears End

Bitcoin's price has experienced a significant decline, dropping from a peak of $109,000 in January 2024 to around $82,000. This downturn is attributed to a decrease in bullish trading activity and an increase in bearish market pressure. The cryptocurrency has seen substantial market movements since its January high, with the price hovering near the $82,000 mark.

Analysts have identified key trading volume patterns in Bitcoin, suggesting that the market might be entering the final stage of the current bull cycle. According to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform analyst Crypto Dan, the metric experiences two stages of downward movement, signaling both the end of the first bull cycle phase and the final stage of the entire cycle. This pattern indicates that the market could be nearing the conclusion of its bullish phase.

Technical analysis of the Bitcoin market reveals diverse viewpoints. The Monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) level of 60 serves as a support floor, as it has during previous dominance peaks in August 2019 and December 2020. The latest price shift indicates that Bitcoin maintains strong market value characteristics. However, some analysts have noted a technical sell signal known as the death cross, where the 50-day moving average is expected to cross below the 200-day moving average. Historical data suggests that this pattern could lead to potential losses, as the averages maintain a significant difference.

Bitcoin's price has recently stabilized at around $83,417 after a quick decline from its resistance level at $84,750. The price recovered near the $82,000 support, establishing a possible anchor point. Both the RSI (46.21) and MACD remain below their signal lines, indicating weak buying conditions. The market has previously seen lower prices followed by a brief rebound due to a "golden cross" indicator, but the overall price direction requires careful monitoring.

For Bitcoin to sustain continuous upward movement, it must overcome the resistance in the $83,800–$84,000 range with robust trading volume. Failure to break through this resistance could lead to another decline to the $82,000 demand area. The negative impact of the previous MACD death cross remains active, potentially deterring traders from taking new positions.

The current bull cycle of Bitcoin appears to be nearing its end, as evidenced by its trading patterns. The price peaked at $109,000 in January 2024 before declining to its current value of around $82,000, indicating waning bullish strength and intensifying bearish forces. Analysts' market outlook predictions are based on CryptoQuant’s trading volume analysis and the significant RSI level at 60. A minor price rise from the $82,000 support was followed by a MACD death cross and flawed RSI readings, signaling ongoing market reserve. Continued resistance within the $83,800–$84,000 range, coupled with insufficient trading volume, could exert negative pressure on Bitcoin prices, discouraging market participants from making strong commitments. This situation creates a neutral to bearish outlook for the near future.