Bitcoin's Dominance in a Post-Trump-EU Trade Pact Crypto Market: Navigating Risk Sentiment and Strategic Entry Points

The July 2025 Trump-EU trade pact, finalized at Turnberry Golf Resort, has reshaped global trade dynamics and recalibrated risk sentiment in financial markets. By averting a 30% tariff threat and settling on a 15% rate on 70% of EU goods, the agreement injected a dose of stability into transatlantic commerce. This stability, coupled with the EU's $750 billion energy purchases and $600 billion investment commitments, created a tailwind for risk-on assets. Bitcoin, the digital asset class's bellwether, surged to $119,500 in July 2025, reflecting this shift. However, as the market matures, Bitcoin's dominance has dipped below 62%, ceding ground to Ethereum and XRP. This article unpacks the interplay of macroeconomic sentiment, strategic entry points, and the evolving crypto landscape.

Risk Sentiment and the Trump-EU Pact: A Catalyst for Bitcoin

The trade pact's announcement coincided with a broader normalization of global trade tensions. By reducing tariffs on energy, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, the agreement mitigated supply chain uncertainties that had previously pressured crypto markets. The U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, maintaining rates amid inflationary pressures, initially capped Bitcoin's upside. However, the pact's economic clarity—reducing the risk of a U.S.-EU trade war—spurred institutional inflows into digital assets.

Technical analysts like Markus Thielen of 10x Research noted a critical support level at $111,673 for Bitcoin. A pullback to this area, they argued, would offer a 1:2 risk-reward ratio, making it a strategic entry point. Meanwhile, on-chain data revealed a balanced distribution of long and short positions, suggesting market indecision. Traders who positioned ahead of the pact's announcement capitalized on a 11.3% monthly gain for Bitcoin, outperforming its historical average.

The Altcoin Rotation: Ethereum and XRP's Rise

Bitcoin's dominance retreat has coincided with a structural shift toward altcoins. Ethereum, bolstered by the U.S. GENIUS Act's regulatory clarity for stablecoins, surged past $3,932, while XRP hit a record $3.30. Ethereum's resurgence is tied to its role as an “internet bond,” with institutions like SharpLink Gaming and Bitmine Immersion Technologies building ether treasuries. XRP's all-time high reflects growing adoption in cross-border payments and decentralized finance (DeFi).

This rotation aligns with historical patterns where Bitcoin dominance peaks at key Fibonacci levels (e.g., 66%) before retreating. The current decline to 60.82% mirrors similar drops in 2023 and 2024, suggesting a cyclical reallocation of capital. Ethereum's ETH/BTC ratio, rebounding from cycle lows, underscores its strength relative to Bitcoin.

Strategic Entry Points in a Maturing Market

For investors, the post-pact environment offers nuanced opportunities. Bitcoin's price action near $119,500 suggests a consolidation phase, with key resistance at $120,000. A breakout above this level could trigger a retest of $125,000, but traders should remain cautious of the Fed's potential rate cuts in September. Tight stop-loss orders are critical given Bitcoin's volatility.

Ethereum, meanwhile, presents a more compelling case for long-term accumulation. Its price is in a bullish trend, with support at $3,550 and resistance near $4,100. XRP, having rebounded from $3.05, could target $3.49 if bulls reclaim that level. Altcoin investors should prioritize projects with real-world utility, such as Conflux (CFX), which has surged due to China's yuan-pegged stablecoin initiatives.

The Road Ahead: Balancing Opportunities and Risks

While the Trump-EU pact has stabilized trade and boosted risk appetite, investors must remain vigilant. The Altcoin Season Index, currently at 42/100, hints at a slight tilt toward Bitcoin dominance, but Ethereum's institutional adoption could prolong altcoin outperformance. Upcoming events, including the FOMC meeting (July 29–30) and the SEC's decision on the Bitwise BITW ETF (July 31), will further shape market sentiment.

In conclusion, the post-Trump-EU trade pact crypto market reflects a maturing asset class. Bitcoin's dominance, while waning, remains a critical barometer of macroeconomic sentiment. Strategic entry points exist for both Bitcoin and altcoins, but disciplined risk management is paramount. As the market evolves, investors should prioritize diversification, leverage technical analysis, and stay attuned to regulatory developments. The next chapter of crypto's journey may well be defined by those who balance caution with conviction.