Why Bitcoin's Decline Is Far From Over and What Traders Must Watch Before the Critical $70K Threshold

Bitcoin's price action in November 2025 has painted a grim picture for bulls. After breaking below the psychological $100,000 support level, the red SuperTrend indicator flipped to a sell signal, and macroeconomic headwinds-including fading optimism around Federal Reserve rate cuts-have amplified the bearish narrative. With ETF outflows accelerating and institutional caution mounting, the cryptocurrency faces a potential 30–50% drop toward $70,000. For traders, understanding the interplay of technical and macroeconomic catalysts is critical to navigating this volatile phase.

Technical Deterioration: Broken Support and Bearish Momentum

Bitcoin's breakdown below $100,000 in November 2025 marked a pivotal moment. This level, long seen as a psychological floor, had previously acted as a magnet for buyers during corrections. Its collapse has triggered a cascade of bearish signals. The red SuperTrend indicator, a dynamic trend-following tool, has turned red, reinforcing the likelihood of further downside.

Technically, Bitcoin is now forming a bearish flag pattern, with the breakdown below $94,000 adding urgency to the sell-off. The asset has also fallen below key moving averages, including the 50-day and 200-day, eroding the foundation of its bullish case. On-chain data suggests that the market is nearing a cyclical bottom, but the path there could be brutal. Analysts warn that if the $88,000 level fails-Bitcoin's current price-support could collapse toward $74,000 or even the 200-week moving average near $70,000 according to analysis.

Macroeconomic Headwinds: Fading Rate-Cut Hopes and ETF Outflows

The macroeconomic backdrop has worsened Bitcoin's technical woes. The Federal Reserve's shifting stance on rate cuts has been a major catalyst. In November 2025, the probability of a December rate cut plummeted, triggering a wave of forced liquidations.

Simultaneously, Bitcoin ETFs have seen massive outflows. In November alone, spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $3.4 billion, the second-highest monthly outflow since their launch. This exodus reflects investor caution, with U.S. spot ETFs recording $142.2 million in net outflows on one day alone according to reports. Even BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), typically a stalwart, saw its largest monthly outflow amid the selloff. While occasional inflows-like the $457 million surge on a single day-suggest pockets of resilience according to data, the broader trend remains bearish.

Ethereum ETFs have fared no better, with $1.4 billion in outflows during the same period according to market analysis. This synchronized retreat across crypto assets underscores a broader loss of confidence, driven by equity market overvaluations and regulatory uncertainty.

Institutional Behavior: A Mixed Signal

Amid the chaos, institutional players like El Salvador and MicroStrategy have continued dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin according to analysis. These purchases, while bullish in intent, have been insufficient to offset the scale of ETF outflows and retail panic. The contrast between institutional accumulation and market-wide selling highlights a tug-of-war between long-term conviction and short-term fear.

On-chain indicators, such as MicroStrategy's modified NAV and Bitcoin's realized loss margin, suggest the market is nearing a cyclical bottom. However, the path to that bottom could involve sharp volatility, particularly as $70,000 looms. This level, tied to the 200-week moving average, represents a critical psychological and technical threshold. A break below it could trigger a self-fulfilling prophecy of panic selling.

What Traders Must Watch

For traders, the immediate focus should be on three key areas:
1. The $70,000 Threshold: A sustained close below this level would validate the bearish case and likely accelerate the selloff.
2. ETF Flows: Continued outflows, especially from major players like BlackRock, will signal ongoing capitulation. Conversely, a reversal in flows could hint at a near-term bottom.
3. Macro Updates: Any shift in Fed policy or equity market sentiment could act as a catalyst for a rebound-or a deeper correction.

Long-term investors, meanwhile, should view this downturn as a potential buying opportunity, but only after Bitcoin consolidates below $70,000 and shows signs of stabilizing. For now, the risks of holding near-term are significant, and patience is paramount.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's decline is far from over. The combination of broken technical support, fading macroeconomic optimism, and accelerating ETF outflows points to a challenging path ahead. Traders must remain vigilant, particularly as the $70,000 threshold looms. While institutional buying offers a glimmer of hope, the immediate focus should be on risk management and strategic positioning for a potential rebound.