Bitcoin/Dai Market Overview: Rally to $111k with Volatility and Divergence Cues

• BTCDAI surged past $110,000 amid strong morning momentum, peaking at $111,199.
• A 15-minute RSI(14) reached overbought territory during midday, suggesting potential pullback.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, reflecting heightened short-term uncertainty.
• On-balance volume skewed toward late-day bullish accumulation, but turnover diverged near high.
• A key resistance at $110,000 was tested twice before a consolidation phase emerged after 16:00 ET.

Market Overview

Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) opened at $107,634.65 on October 30, 2025, and surged to a 24-hour high of $111,199.25 before closing at $110,298.78 on October 31 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 1.94 BTC, with a notional turnover of $212.74 million, reflecting strong trading activity. The price action was driven by early-morning buying, with a sharp rebound off support near $107,000 and a bullish breakout above $110,000.

The 15-minute chart shows a clear shift in momentum from late afternoon to early evening, with several bullish engulfing patterns forming as price broke above key resistance levels. A doji formed at the 24-hour high, indicating potential indecision. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed into bullish territory in the final hours, reinforcing the trend. However, volume started to wane after the $111k peak, raising questions about sustainability.

The MACD histogram turned positive and expanded sharply in the morning, confirming bullish momentum. However, the RSI(14) moved into overbought territory in the late morning and afternoon, suggesting a potential reversal or consolidation. Bollinger Bands widened as volatility increased, with price staying near the upper band for several hours, indicating a stretch of aggressive buying. Price is currently sitting at the upper 61.8% Fibonacci level of the last major swing, suggesting a potential retest or consolidation.

Key Resistance and Support Levels

Key support levels to watch include $107,500, which held multiple times during pullbacks, and the lower Fibonacci level at $106,500. Resistance is currently testing at $110,500 and the 78.6% Fibonacci level near $111,500. A break above $111,500 could trigger further momentum, but the doji and diverging volume hint at a potential short-term correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent BTCDAI price action suggests a potential overbought condition, particularly during the midday rally to $111,199.25. If the system used RSI(14) as a signal (hourly bars), this would have been a candidate for a short entry at the close of the $111,199.25 candle. Given the divergence in volume and the doji at the high, the strategy would likely have triggered a 24-hour exit at $110,298.78, yielding a -0.89% return. A daily RSI(14) > 70 entry at the close of the same day would have yielded a slightly more bearish result, with a closing price 0.89% lower. The strategy appears to align well with the 15-minute divergence observed, but further confirmation would be needed if applied to daily bars.