Los precios críticos de Bitcoin y el sentimiento del mercado de derivados: evaluación de la posición del comerciante apalancado e implicaciones de riesgo para la trayectoria a corto plazo

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 has been defined by a tug-of-war between critical support and resistance levels, with derivatives market sentiment amplifying the volatility and risk profile of leveraged positions. As the asset consolidates within a $85,000–$94,000 range, the interplay between technical levels and derivatives-driven liquidity dynamics is shaping the near-term outlook. This analysis examines how leveraged trader positioning, open interest trends, and liquidation hotspots are influencing Bitcoin's trajectory, with implications for both institutional and retail participants.

Critical Support and Resistance Levels: A Fragile Equilibrium

Bitcoin's immediate support zone at $85,000 has become a focal point for market participants, with recent selling pressure testing its resilience. A breakdown below this level could trigger a cascade toward the $73,000 demand area, as noted by analysts at BeInCrypto. Conversely, resistance at $90,000 has repeatedly stalled bullish momentum, with institutional and retail traders reinforcing this level through increased short-term selling. A successful breakout above $90,000 could target the $94,700 Fib 0.236 level, a critical psychological and technical threshold. Beyond that, price targets of $100,600 and $105,400 loom, contingent on sustained buying pressure.

The consolidation phase reflects a broader market hesitation, particularly as the holiday season traditionally reduces liquidity. Institutional investors, wary of macroeconomic uncertainties, have adopted a wait-and-see approach, while retail traders-especially leveraged participants-have contributed to selling pressure. If Bitcoin holds its support levels, it could set the stage for a bullish reacceleration in early 2026, with price targets extending into the $100,000–$120,000 range.

Derivatives Market Sentiment: A Tale of Deleveraging and Releveraging

Derivatives markets have underscored the fragility of Bitcoin's current price structure. Perpetual futures open interest plummeted by 35% in November 2025, dropping from a $94 billion peak to $61 billion, as traders systematically unwound leveraged positions. This deleveraging was exacerbated by a $2 billion liquidation event in a single 24-hour period, affecting over 396,000 accounts. The decline in open interest reflects a broader flight to liquidity, driven by macroeconomic pressures, ETF redemptions, and stablecoin market contractions as noted in the analysis.

Funding rates in Bitcoin's derivatives market turned negative in early November as spot prices fell below $100,000, signaling an overheated long position bias. Meanwhile, the long/short ratio expanded to 2.03x, indicating traders were accumulating longs into weakness rather than capitulating. This suggests a cautious optimism, though the sustainability of these positions remains questionable given Bitcoin's underperformance relative to key moving averages as per the analysis.

Liquidation Hotspots and Systemic Risk

November 2025's liquidation cascade exposed vulnerabilities in leveraged positioning. Bitcoin's drop below $85,000 triggered a self-reinforcing cycle, of stop-loss orders and forced closures, with long positions accounting for 85% of liquidations. The largest single liquidation-a $36.7 million BTC position on Hyperliquid highlighted the concentration of risk in high-leverage trades. Liquidation heatmaps, which visualize open interest and leverage data, revealed clusters of risk at $85,000 and $90,000, areas where price reversals are likely.

Structural factors, including ETF outflows and macroeconomic spillovers, compounded the fragility. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.79 billion in redemptions in November, with BlackRock's IBIT alone losing $2.47 billion. These outflows, combined with leveraged positions concentrated in perpetual futures, created a fragile market structure prone to volatility amplification as detailed in the report.

Implications for the Near-Term Trajectory

Bitcoin's near-term path hinges on its ability to defend the $85,000 support level while managing the risk of cascading liquidations. A breakout above $90,000 could attract fresh leverage, particularly as derivatives markets show signs of renewed activity on platforms like Binance and CME. However, the market's reliance on leveraged positions-many of which are concentrated at 10x–100x leverage-introduces a binary outcome: either a sustained bullish trend or a deeper correction as highlighted in the analysis.

For investors, the key takeaway is the need for caution. While the first half of 2026 could bring bullish momentum, the current environment remains fraught with risk. Traders should monitor open interest trends, funding rates, and liquidation heatmaps to avoid entering high-risk zones. As one analyst noted, "The market is clearing excess leverage, but the scars from November's deleveraging will linger into early 2026" according to market analysis.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's critical price levels and derivatives market dynamics paint a picture of a market in transition. The interplay between technical support/resistance and leveraged positioning creates both opportunities and risks. While the asset's fundamentals remain intact, the near-term trajectory will be shaped by liquidity conditions, macroeconomic developments, and the behavior of leveraged traders. For now, the $85,000–$90,000 range will be the battleground for Bitcoin's next move.