Bitcoin's Critical $105K Support Level and the Case for a 40% Relief Rally in Q4 2025

Bitcoin's price has entered a pivotal phase as it tests the $105,000 support level in Q4 2025, a threshold that could determine whether the market experiences a prolonged correction or initiates a sharp relief rally. Technical analysis and macroeconomic dynamics suggest a compelling case for a 40% rebound, driven by institutional accumulation, extreme retail bearishness, and structural support from on-chain metrics.

Technical Analysis: A Confluence of Support and Divergence

The $105,000 level has emerged as a critical psychological and technical floor for Bitcoin. According to Benzinga's Bitcoin Market Outlook, the price has rebounded sharply from this level after a June 2025 dip, consolidating between $103,000 and $106,000. This consolidation is viewed as a "healthy correction" following a 50% rally from cycle lows, with traders taking profits at higher levels, according to Cointelegraph's analysis. Fibonacci retracement levels reinforce the significance of $105,000–$108,000 as a key support zone, aligning with Coinlaw analysis of technical and psychological resistance.

Technical indicators paint a mixed but increasingly bullish picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown signs of bullish divergence on shorter timeframes, with higher lows forming as Bitcoin hits new price lows below $110,000, as noted in a Bitcoin Magazine report. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in bearish territory on daily charts but displays mild bullishness on the weekly timeframe, suggesting a potential reversal, according to a CryptoNews article. A double-top pattern with a neckline at $112,000 has also been identified, with a breakdown confirming bearish momentum, the CryptoNews article adds. However, Bitcoin's ability to hold above the 200-day EMA at $107,520 preserves the long-term bullish structure, the Bitcoin Magazine report notes.

On-chain data further strengthens the case for a rebound. The MVRV Z-Score of 2.15 indicates the market is in an accumulation phase rather than euphoria, as highlighted in the Benzinga Bitcoin Market Outlook. Smaller holders (1–1,000 BTC) have been net accumulators during the recent decline from $118,000 to $108,000, while metrics like the $15.11 billion in short liquidation potential suggest a significant short squeeze if prices rise by 10%, per the CryptoNews analysis.

Macro-Driven Market Sentiment: Accumulation Amid Volatility

Beyond technicals, macroeconomic factors are shaping Bitcoin's trajectory. Institutional activity and ETF inflows have provided strong momentum, with analysts predicting price movement between $95,000 and $145,000 depending on regulatory developments, a point raised in Cointelegraph's analysis. Despite a drop below $105,000 in October 2025, on-chain accumulation by smaller holders suggests a floor is forming, as the Benzinga outlook observes. This contrasts with extreme retail bearishness, as sentiment metrics hit historical extremes following the breach of $113,000—a level that has historically signaled buying opportunities, the CryptoNews article notes.

Geopolitical stability has also improved market sentiment. The Iran-Israel ceasefire has eased global tensions, reducing risk aversion and supporting risk-on assets, per the Bitcoin Magazine report. However, regional bank stress in the U.S. continues to weigh on Bitcoin, with the price dipping below the 200-day SMA at $107,520, according to a Cointelegraph report. Analysts caution that a breakdown below $100,000 could trigger a retest of the $92,000–$95,000 support zone, a scenario discussed in Cointelegraph's earlier analysis.

The Case for a 40% Relief Rally

The confluence of technical and macroeconomic factors creates a compelling case for a 40% relief rally in Q4 2025. If Bitcoin stabilizes above $105,000, it could trigger a short-covering rally toward $110,000–$112,000, with a weekly close above $125,000 invalidating bearish scenarios and opening the path for new highs, the Bitcoin Magazine report argues. A pullback to $100,000 is seen as a potential catalyst for accumulation, with historical seasonality suggesting October could mark a historic bottom, the Benzinga outlook suggests.

Institutional demand remains a key driver. Despite whale selling of 147,000 BTC since August, mid-sized and retail wallets show renewed conviction, indicating a shift in market dynamics, an observation made in Cointelegraph's analysis. This divergence between retail liquidations and institutional buying creates a floor for prices, particularly if macroeconomic risks abate.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's $105,000 support level is a linchpin for Q4 2025. Technical indicators, on-chain accumulation, and extreme retail bearishness all point to a high probability of a relief rally. While risks remain-particularly from U.S. regional bank stress-the market's structural strength and institutional participation suggest a 40% rebound is not only plausible but increasingly likely. Investors should closely monitor the $105,000–$107,000 range, as a successful defense could reignite the bullish trend toward $145,000.