Bitcoin’s Critical $100,000 Support: A Turning Point for the Bull Market

Bitcoin’s $100,000 support level in August 2025 has become a pivotal battleground for bulls and bears, with technical and on-chain indicators painting a complex picture. While bearish signals like the RSI stabilizing below 50 on daily charts and a breakdown in a descending channel pattern on the 4-hour timeframe raise concerns, bullish factors such as increased buy-side liquidity and whale accumulation suggest resilience [1]. The 200-day moving average at $101,000 has flipped to resistance, historically associated with bear market confirmations [2]. However, on-chain metrics like the MVRV Z-Score dropping to 1.43—historically linked to bull market bottoms—indicate the current correction may be part of a healthy consolidation phase [3].

Institutional flows further complicate the outlook. ETF inflows, particularly from BlackRock’s IBIT, have reinforced the $100,000–$107,000 range, but $1.15 billion in outflows signal short-term weakening [1]. The order book dynamics show a 17% increase in buy-side liquidity and a 28% decrease in sell-side depth compared to April 2025, creating a favorable environment for upward movement [1]. Whale accumulation, with wallets holding >1,000 BTC increasing by 4.2% in the 72 hours preceding the $100,000 level, suggests strategic positioning by long-term holders [1].

Macroeconomic factors add another layer of uncertainty. The anticipated 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September could ease pressure on risk assets, potentially creating a favorable environment for a retest of Bitcoin’s all-time high [1]. However, inflation data and geopolitical tensions remain wild cards. Bitcoin’s correlation with equities has tightened, making it sensitive to broader market sentiment [1].

Historical parallels offer caution and optimism. The 2021 breakdown below $42,000 was a false signal, with Bitcoin rebounding to $69,000 within months [2]. The current bull cycle, however, is shaped by institutionalization, with ETF approvals and corporate holdings reducing retail-driven volatility [2]. The 2024 halving event and “Greentober” patterns are seen as potential catalysts for a retest of $120,000 [1].

For investors, the $100,000 level presents a strategic entry point. The Fear and Greed Index remains neutral, indicating no immediate panic selling, while ETF inflows suggest growing institutional interest [1]. A price stabilization above $107,350 could reinforce the $114,000 resistance level as a base for a rebound [1]. Dollar-cost averaging into ETFs and maintaining risk-averse allocations (1–3% of total assets) are recommended strategies for retail investors [1].

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s $100,000 support level is a critical juncture. While bearish technical indicators and macroeconomic uncertainties pose risks, structural factors like whale accumulation and institutional demand suggest it could hold as a temporary support. Traders should monitor the $110,000–$112,000 range for directional clues, as a break above this zone could trigger a retest of key resistance, while a breakdown would signal deeper bearish momentum [1][2].

Source:
[1] Is $100000 a Defensible Support Level for Bitcoin Amid [https://www.ainvest.com/news/100-000-defensible-support-level-bitcoin-volatility-2508/]
[2] Bitcoin Price Analysis Today: Key Resistance at $113.6K Looms [https://www.tradingview.com/news/financemagnates:4d6261b6c094b:0-bitcoin-price-analysis-today-key-resistance-at-113-6k-looms/]
[3] What Bitcoin Indicators Predict For Q3 2025? [https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-indicators-predict-q3-2025]
[4] Backtest: Bitcoin Support Level Impact (2022–2025) [https://backtest.bitcoinanalysis.com/support-level-impact-2022-2025]
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