Bitcoin's Cohesive Accumulation by Both Long and Short-Term Holders Signals a New All-Time High Breakout

The Bitcoin market is rarely this unanimous. Since June 22, 2025, both long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs)—groups historically at odds during bull markets—have been accumulating Bitcoin in tandem. This rare alignment of on-chain metrics, coupled with regulatory tailwinds and institutional adoption, paints a compelling picture for a historic price breakout above $112,000. Let's dissect the data, psychology, and catalysts driving this momentum.

On-Chain Metrics: A Historic Convergence

Glassnode data reveals that LTHs (holders with coins older than 155 days) added 13,000 BTC to their holdings since June 22, pushing their total supply to a record 14,713,345 BTC. Meanwhile, STHs—traditionally active traders—increased their holdings by over 60,000 BTC, bringing their total to 2.3 million BTC. .

This simultaneous accumulation defies historical norms. During prior bull runs, LTHs typically sold to realize gains while STHs bought into rising prices. Today's unified buying suggests a broad-based conviction that Bitcoin's next leg higher is imminent.

Market Psychology: From Divergence to Consensus

The behavioral shift is stark. STHs, known for chasing momentum, are now accumulating amid consolidation near $108,000—a level that once represented resistance but now appears as a floor. LTHs, who typically lighten their positions during rallies, are instead reinforcing their long-term stance.

Glassnode's Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) shows a “staircase-like” accumulation phase, with both cohorts adding to holdings at prices below $110,000. This pattern historically precedes sharp upward moves. The MVRV ratio (a measure of unrealized profits) has fallen to 220%, near October 2024 lows, signaling that further price gains could reignite profit-taking enthusiasm.

Regulatory and Institutional Catalysts

The market's confidence isn't unfounded. Regulatory clarity is accelerating Bitcoin's institutional adoption:
- The EU's MiCA regulation grants legal certainty for crypto firms, reducing systemic risk.
- The U.S. Senate's stablecoin framework and pending ETF approvals are drawing institutional capital.
- Corporate adoption, such as Trump Media's $2.3 billion Bitcoin treasury, underscores Bitcoin's status as a macro hedge.

These developments are transforming Bitcoin's liquidity profile. Over 30% of Bitcoin supply is now held in centralized treasuries, a shift that stabilizes markets and reduces volatility.

Technical and Fundamental Risks

While the bullish case is strong, risks remain:
- Profit-taking at $109,300: LTHs may sell near this key resistance level, testing buyer resolve.
- Geopolitical volatility: Macro uncertainty could delay the breakout, though Bitcoin's correlation with equities has weakened.

Investment Implications: Capitalize on the Convergence

The data points to a clear strategy:
1. Strategic accumulation: Use dollar-cost averaging to buy Bitcoin between $103k and $108k, targeting the $112k ATH and beyond.
2. Monitor on-chain signals: Track LTH/STH accumulation via Glassnode's Leverage Position Openings and Closures (LPOC) metrics to identify market tops/bottoms.
3. Hedge against macro risks: Bitcoin's diversification benefits are amplified in a world of inflation and fiscal instability.

Conclusion: The Breakout Is Imminent

When long-term holders and short-term traders unite in buying, it's a rare green light for a historic breakout. Bitcoin's fundamentals—on-chain health, regulatory maturation, and institutional demand—are aligned to push prices beyond $112k. Investors ignoring this convergence risk missing one of crypto's most compelling opportunities in years.

The question isn't whether Bitcoin will climb—it's how high the staircase will take it next.