Bitcoin's CEX Inflow Surge: A Signal of Institutional Reentry and Short-Term Bullish Momentum

The fourth quarter of 2025 has marked a pivotal inflection point for Bitcoin, driven by a confluence of institutional reentry, regulatory clarity, and structural shifts in capital flow dynamics. On-chain metrics and exchange-specific inflow patterns reveal a market increasingly dominated by institutional actors, with Bitcoin's dominance rising to nearly 60% as altcoins retreat. This analysis unpacks the evidence of institutional reentry, the role of centralized exchanges (CEXs), and the implications for Bitcoin's short-term momentum.

Institutional Reentry and Capital Flow

Institutional participation in Bitcoin has surged, with digital asset treasuries (DATs) now holding 3.5% of Bitcoin's circulating supply. This trend is underscored by the approval of U.S. spot ETFs, which have attracted $57.56 billion in cumulative net inflows since their launch, despite a marginal $0.2 billion in redemptions in late December. The structural demand for Bitcoin remains robust, as evidenced by futures open interest hitting a record $67.9 billion, with the CME accounting for 30% of this volume.

The October 10 deleveraging event-a 14% plunge in Bitcoin's price-highlighted the maturation of institutional behavior. Unlike retail-driven corrections, this selloff saw sustained institutional buying post-liquidation, limiting downside and reinforcing Bitcoin's role as a high-beta asset tied to macroeconomic cycles. This resilience is further supported by a 690% price gain in 2025 and a halving of long-term volatility to 43%, signaling deeper market liquidity as reported by Glassnode.

Exchange-Specific Inflows: Binance and Coinbase

Exchange-level data reveals a nuanced picture of capital flows. In November 2025, Coinbase recorded $21.0 billion in seven-day cumulative inflows, while Binance saw $15.3 billion according to TradingView data. By December, however, inflow leadership shifted, with Binance surpassing Coinbase as inflows declined to $10.3 billion and $7.8 billion, respectively. This shift reflects a broader trend of liquidity concentration and reduced urgency in trading activity, as institutional capital increasingly channels through ETFs and brokerage platforms as detailed in Glassnode's analysis.

The October deleveraging event also exposed vulnerabilities in CEX infrastructure. Binance faced challenges as USDE stablecoin temporarily depegged, while ETF outflows totaled $5.2 billion in the week following October 10 according to Spectrum Search. Despite these hiccups, the post-crash rebound-driven by institutional buyers-underscored the growing dominance of institutional-grade liquidity over retail-driven volatility as reported by Spectrum Search.

ETFs and Market Structure

Bitcoin ETFs have become a cornerstone of capital flow, with daily trading volumes peaking at $9 billion during stress events. These ETFs now settle $6.9 trillion in value on-chain over 90 days, rivaling the quarterly volumes of Visa and Mastercard as Glassnode reports. The shift to ETFs has also reduced Bitcoin's daily active entities from 240,000 to 170,000, as institutional investors prioritize off-chain execution while settlement remains on-chain according to Glassnode's analysis.

Tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) have further diversified capital flows, growing from $7 billion to $24 billion in a year. These assets, with low correlation to traditional crypto, enhance stability and capital efficiency in DeFi ecosystems as Glassnode reports. Meanwhile, decentralized perpetuals have captured 16–20% of perpetual futures volume, with monthly trading volumes exceeding $1 trillion according to Glassnode's analysis.

Short-Term Momentum and Risks

Bitcoin's short-term bullish momentum is supported by institutional optimism. A global investor survey found 67% of institutional investors bullish on Bitcoin over the next 3–6 months. However, risks persist. Approximately 6.7 million BTC remain at a loss, and resistance bands between $93,000 and $120,000 could hinder further gains as reported by Spectrum Search. Regulatory progress, including the GENIUS Act for stablecoins and anticipated CLARITY Act reforms, provides a tailwind but does not eliminate macroeconomic headwinds as Coinbase notes.

Conclusion

The surge in CEX inflows and institutional reentry in Q4 2025 signals a structural shift in Bitcoin's market dynamics. While ETFs and tokenized assets redefine capital flow, the interplay between institutional demand and regulatory clarity will determine Bitcoin's trajectory. For investors, the data suggests a market anchored by institutional liquidity but vulnerable to macroeconomic volatility-a duality that demands cautious optimism.