Bitcoin's Cautious Path to $104K: Can History Repeat Without the Fire?

The recent analysis from Glassnode suggests that Bitcoin could potentially reach as high as $104,000 to mirror historical bullish market patterns. This projection is based on a comparison of current on-chain and market indicators with those observed during previous bull cycles. The firm highlights that such a move would require a significant accumulation of demand, akin to what has been seen in past cycles.

Currently, Bitcoin has been trading above the cost basis of short-term holders, with prices hovering around the $111,000 level. While momentum in the spot market has shown signs of recovery—evidenced by a rise in the RSI toward neutral territory and improvements in Spot CVD—trading volumes have fallen below typical levels. This suggests cautious participation among investors, with little conviction in sustaining current price levels.

In the futures market, there has been stabilization, marked by a modest increase in open interest and a strong recovery in perpetual CVD. These metrics indicate potential "buy-the-dip" activity, where traders look to capitalize on perceived undervaluation. However, the decline in funding rates points to a more balanced market sentiment, with reduced bullish pressure from traders.

Options market data also reflects a tempered environment. Open interest has declined, indicating reduced engagement, while volatility spreads have narrowed, suggesting calmer market expectations. Despite this, 25-delta skew remains elevated, highlighting continued demand for downside protection and hedging strategies.

On-chain metrics show mixed signals. Active addresses have returned to a normal range, indicating a modest uptick in network participation. However, transfer volumes and fees have decreased, suggesting quieter market conditions. The network appears to be stabilizing, but there is no significant surge in organic activity that would typically precede a strong bull move.

Capital flows remain fragile, with modest speculative activity observed. Realized Cap inflows have increased slightly, and the ratio of short-term to long-term holders (STH/LTH) has seen a minor rise. However, hot capital share has eased, which indicates that speculative positioning is not yet strong enough to drive a sustained rally.

Profit and loss metrics have shown slight improvement, with supply in profit and NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) rising within normal ranges. This suggests cautious optimism among investors, who are realizing profits but have not reached extreme levels that would typically signal a market peak.

Taken together, the market is showing signs of fragile stabilization above the cost basis of short-term holders. While momentum and profitability metrics are improving, lower trading volumes and defensive positioning suggest a cautious stance. A move toward $104,000 would require stronger and more decisive demand re-emergence, similar to what has historically driven bull cycles.