Bitcoin Cash/Yen Market Overview: Volatility, Reversals, and Key Resistance Levels

• Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) traded in a 24-hour range of ¥86,571 to ¥90,770, closing at ¥88,628 after a volatile session.
• Momentum showed mixed signals, with RSI hitting overbought levels in the morning before a late-day pullback.
• Volatility expanded significantly overnight, driven by a sharp spike in price and volume between ¥87,000–¥90,000.
• A potential bearish reversal pattern emerged at ¥87,637, followed by a retest and pullback into key support at ¥86,800–¥87,000.
• Bollinger Bands widened overnight, indicating a high-risk, high-reward environment for short-term traders.

24-Hour Price Action Summary

At 12:00 ET–1 (October 4, 2025), Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) opened at ¥86,612, surged to a high of ¥90,770 overnight, and closed at ¥88,628 as of 12:00 ET on October 5. Over the 24-hour period, the pair recorded a total volume of 66.75 BTC and a notional turnover of ¥5,645,000, highlighting increased participation during the overnight rally.

Structure & Formations

The price action revealed a strong bullish push from ¥87,637 to ¥90,770 overnight, followed by a bearish reversal as prices retested this area and dropped toward ¥86,897. A key bearish engulfing pattern appeared at ¥87,637, with subsequent bearish momentum pulling the price down through previous support levels. A doji formed at ¥87,637 and ¥86,897, signaling indecision and potential trend pauses.

A critical support zone developed at ¥86,800–¥87,000, where the price found a floor and bounced slightly, though it did not manage a sustained breakout. Resistance appears to be forming around ¥87,637 and ¥88,692, with the latter currently holding as a psychological barrier.

Moving Averages and Timeframes

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a bearish crossover around ¥87,637, confirming the reversal pattern. The daily chart’s 50-period and 200-period moving averages are currently diverging, with the 50-period above the 200-period, indicating a potential short-term bullish bias in the longer term.

MACD & RSI Insights

The MACD showed a bearish crossover following the overnight rally, with a significant decline in momentum into the morning. The RSI surged to overbought territory at 75+ during the rally to ¥90,770, followed by a sharp decline back to neutral levels, indicating exhaustion and a likely retracement.

The RSI divergence from price action late in the session suggested further downward pressure, with bears regaining control. Traders should watch for a potential RSI rebound to 50–55 as a sign of short-term stabilization or a bounce attempt.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly overnight, particularly between ¥87,000–¥90,000, indicating a high-volatility environment. Price peaked at the upper band during the morning and then collapsed into the lower band, suggesting a strong reversal was in progress.

The volatility contraction observed in the morning hours led to a bearish breakout, with price closing below the lower band and forming a bearish channel. Traders should monitor if the price remains within the bands or if it breaks out again in either direction, which would indicate a potential continuation or reversal phase.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked during the rally from ¥87,637 to ¥90,770, with over 0.9 BTC traded during the 30-minute rally to ¥90,211. However, turnover was relatively low during the subsequent bearish retracement, indicating a lack of conviction from longs and increased pressure from short sellers.

A notable divergence appeared between price and turnover late in the session, with price declining but turnover remaining flat, suggesting short-term bearish momentum may be fading.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the overnight swing from ¥87,637 to ¥90,770 shows key levels at 38.2% (¥89,157) and 61.8% (¥87,979). The price has since tested the 61.8% level and found resistance there, reinforcing the idea that this area may act as a pivot in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern at ¥87,637 and the subsequent pullback into the ¥86,800–¥87,000 support zone, a potential backtest strategy could involve shorting at the retest of ¥87,637 with a stop-loss above ¥88,000 and a target of ¥86,500. Additionally, a long entry on a bounce above ¥87,000 with a stop-loss below ¥86,800 could be considered for a potential reversal scenario.

This strategy aligns with the observed RSI divergence and bearish MACD crossover, suggesting a high-probability setup for short-term traders.