Bitcoin Cash/Yen Market Overview: BCHJPY Volatility and Key Reversals

• BCHJPY opened at 81879.0, surged to 83515.0, then retraced to 81235.0, closing at 82574.0
• Price action showed two distinct impulses: a midday rally and a late-night pullback
• Momentum diverged from price during the retracement, with RSI dipping into oversold territory
• Volume spiked during key reversals but was largely absent during consolidation periods
• Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion during the rally, indicating heightened volatility

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-13, Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) opened at 81879.0, peaked at 83515.0, and bottomed at 81235.0, closing the 24-hour window at 82574.0. Total volume was 28.5699, with notional turnover reaching 2,376,286.0 JPY. The pair displayed choppy intra-day movement with two distinct directional shifts: a strong bullish impulse in the early hours of 10-13 and a sharp bearish correction in the evening of 10-12.

The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart oscillated between 82100 and 82800, reflecting the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The 50-period line crossed into bullish territory during the rally but failed to hold during the late-night selloff. On a daily basis, the 50-period SMA (82000) and 200-period SMA (81600) remained in a bullish alignment, suggesting the longer-term trend remains intact despite recent volatility.

Momentum indicators painted a mixed picture. The MACD showed a bullish crossover in the early morning, aligning with the rally, but faded quickly as the bearish correction gained strength. The RSI dropped below 30 during the selloff, signaling potential oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a strong reversal. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the upward move, indicating a surge in volatility. Price later retested the upper band, failing to hold a breakout. The midday consolidation saw a reversion toward the 82600–82700 level, which acted as a psychological floor.

Volume and turnover were key during turning points. The rally from 81879.0 to 83515.0 saw a volume spike of over 6.7906 units, while the subsequent bearish move from 83515.0 to 81235.0 occurred on lower volume, suggesting a lack of conviction in the downside. The divergence between volume and price during the selloff raises caution for further volatility. A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 81235.0–83515.0 move placed support at 82160, while the 61.8% level is at 81630. Traders should watch for a test of these levels in the next 24 hours.

The price could test key support levels if the bearish momentum from the evening selloff continues. A breakout above 83000 would signal renewed bullish confidence, whereas a break below 82000 could trigger deeper retracements. Investors are advised to monitor volume behavior closely during these potential turning points to assess the strength of either direction.

Backtest Hypothesis
The Bullish-Engulfing candlestick pattern is typically seen as a reversal signal in bearish-to-bullish market conditions. Given the volatility in the BCHJPY pair, identifying such patterns could offer valuable insights into potential entry points. However, the current data source appears unable to recognize the BCHJPY ticker, which is likely due to limited coverage of the JPY-denominated pair.

To proceed, I propose using the more liquid BCH/USD pair as a proxy, given its broader data availability, and then applying a JPY conversion factor to simulate BCHJPY price movements. Once the correct ticker is confirmed or an alternative is adopted, I can detect all Bullish-Engulfing patterns from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-13. For each identified pattern, the strategy will buy at the open of the next day and hold for 5 calendar days before exiting.

This event-driven backtest will track several key metrics, including average 5-day returns, hit ratio, and maximum drawdown. Additionally, it will generate an equity curve to visualize performance over time. If this approach is acceptable, please confirm the preferred ticker symbol or data format for the analysis.