Bitcoin Cash/Yen Market Overview (24-Hour Report)

• Bitcoin Cash/Yen opened at ¥87,151 and closed at ¥88,639 within a volatile 24-hour window.
• A key breakout above ¥88,333 failed to hold, leading to a late-day pullback toward ¥88,700.
• Momentum remains mixed, with RSI hovering near 50 and MACD signaling potential divergence.
• Volume spiked in early-morning hours, with strong buying pressure pushing prices toward ¥89,500 before a reversal.
• Volatility expanded mid-day as Bollinger Bands widened, indicating an active phase in the market.

At 12:00 ET-1 on 2025-09-12, Bitcoin Cash/Yen opened at ¥87,151. Over the next 24 hours, it reached a high of ¥89,514 and a low of ¥87,107 before closing at ¥88,639 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-13. Total volume over the 24-hour period was approximately 84.64 BCH, with a total notional turnover of roughly ¥7.2 million (based on weighted average prices and volumes).

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data reveals a complex price action with multiple swing highs and lows. A strong bullish breakout occurred in the early morning (¥89,514), followed by a bearish reversal and a consolidation phase. Key support levels include ¥88,700 and ¥88,573, with a potential test at ¥88,333. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged after the ¥89,500 high, suggesting caution. A doji formed at ¥88,887, highlighting indecision and a potential pivot. Resistance is forming around ¥89,153 and ¥89,355, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at ¥89,138 becoming a key area to watch.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show a dynamic crossover pattern, with the 20-period line moving above the 50-period line during bullish phases. The 20-period line currently resides near ¥88,720, while the 50-period line is at ¥88,680. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is at ¥88,400, with the 200-period MA at ¥87,800. Price remains above both, indicating a bullish bias, but recent volatility suggests a potential retest of the 50-period level.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines show a mixed signal: while the bullish crossover in the early morning pushed the indicator above zero, the bearish divergence later in the day pulled it back. The histogram remains near zero, suggesting balanced momentum. RSI fluctuates between 48 and 52, indicating a market that is neither overbought nor oversold. A push above 60 may signal renewed bullish momentum, but a close below 40 could trigger a deeper pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the early morning hours, with the upper band reaching ¥89,514 and the lower band dropping to ¥88,238. The price has spent much of the day near the upper band before retreating toward the middle band. This suggests a period of high volatility followed by consolidation. A break above the upper band could signal a continuation pattern, while a test of the lower band would confirm bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the early morning with heavy buying pressure (¥89,514) and again in the late afternoon with a large move toward ¥89,355. Notional turnover also increased during these periods, indicating strong participation. However, a divergence appears between price and volume in the late morning hours, where the price declined while volume remained low. This could hint at potential weakness or a lack of conviction among buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the most recent 15-minute swing from ¥87,107 to ¥89,514, the 38.2% retracement level is at ¥88,620, and the 61.8% level is at ¥88,333. These levels have been tested in the last 24 hours, particularly the 61.8% level, which failed to hold, suggesting that bears may have the upper hand for now. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from ¥87,107 to ¥89,514 is at ¥88,600—nearly where the price is currently trading. A break above ¥88,700 could confirm a bullish reversal from this level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves a mean-reversion approach based on Bollinger Band contractions and RSI divergence, combined with Fibonacci retracement levels. It suggests entering a long position when price touches the lower Bollinger Band with RSI below 30, and a short position when price hits the upper band with RSI above 70. The strategy also incorporates a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement as a target or stop. The current data shows a recent contraction in Bollinger Bands followed by an expansion, with RSI fluctuating near the 50-line. A test of the lower band or a divergence in RSI could provide a high-probability entry point aligned with this strategy.