Bitcoin Cash/Yen Market Overview for 2025-10-10

• Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) closed 24h lower, down from 88,361 to 87,860, amid mixed volume and volatility.
• A notable bearish breakdown occurred from 91,076 to 88,875 on heavy volume, signaling short-term capitulation.
• Price found key support at 87,001–88,320, with a 6.6% volume spike during the bounce.
• RSI remains oversold near 30, but MACD is bearish, suggesting momentum favors the downside.
• Volatility expanded sharply during the peak at 91,076, followed by a sharp contraction into the close.

Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) opened at 88,361 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET and closed at 87,860 on 2025-10-10 at the same time. The pair reached a high of 91,076 and a low of 87,001, with a total traded volume of 219.73 BCH and a notional turnover of 18,890,805.69 Yen in the 24-hour window.

The price action revealed a sharp, bearish breakdown after a volatile push to 91,076, where it failed to hold and collapsed rapidly to 88,875. A follow-through breakdown occurred below this level, leading to a close near 87,860. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages were bearish on the 15-minute chart, while the 50-period daily MA suggested a longer-term downtrend.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels have formed at 87,001–88,320, with a strong rejection candle on the 15-minute timeframe at 87,860. Resistance appears to be clustered around 88,550–89,000, where earlier bullish attempts failed. A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred at 88,352–88,149, confirming downward momentum. A doji at 88,822–88,875 hinted at indecision before the breakdown, but the failure to rebound decisively suggested bearish control.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were bearish, with price closing well below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was also bearish, with the 100-period and 200-period MAs reinforcing the downtrend. These averages suggest that the pair may continue to find resistance above 88,500 and could test the next level of support at 87,000 in the coming 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The RSI is currently in oversold territory near 30, which could suggest a short-term bounce. However, the MACD remains bearish, with the line below the signal line and the histogram contracting, indicating that bearish momentum is still intact. This divergence between RSI and MACD suggests that while a bounce could occur, the broader trend remains bearish, and a retest of 87,000 is likely before any meaningful reversal occurs.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the peak at 91,076, but has since contracted into the close. Price is now trading near the lower Bollinger Band, which supports the bearish bias. A rebound from the lower band could offer a short-term opportunity for a counter-trend move, but a break below the lower band would confirm a stronger bearish bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was heaviest during the breakdown at 88,875–87,860, with a 6.6% volume spike during that period. Turnover followed suit, confirming the bearish move. However, volume has cooled off significantly in the last few hours, which could suggest exhaustion. Any reversal would need to be accompanied by a pickup in volume to be credible.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, key Fibonacci levels for the move from 91,076 to 87,860 are 88,698 (38.2%) and 88,036 (61.8%). These levels are currently acting as resistance and support, respectively. A test of the 61.8% level could confirm a deeper bearish move toward 87,000.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position on a breakdown of the 61.8% Fibonacci level (88,036) with a stop above the recent high of 88,698 and a target at 87,000. This setup would align with the bearish bias in the MACD, the low RSI, and the key Fibonacci levels. Volume confirmation would be essential to validate the trade signal and improve the risk-reward profile.