Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) Market Overview

• Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) dropped from 86,490 to 84,686 over 24 hours, ending with a -2.04% decline.
• Volatility spiked during the Asian session, with a range of 12,383 Yen (85,211 to 86,490).
• Low volume and muted turnover suggest a consolidation phase ahead of a potential breakout.
• RSI and MACD indicators are bearish, signaling further downward pressure if key support levels fail.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction, hinting at an impending directional move.

The Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) pair opened at 86,490 (12:00 ET − 1) and closed at 84,686 by 12:00 ET, recording a 24-hour low of 84,418 and a high of 86,490. Total volume for the period was 154.3495 BCH, with a notional turnover of approximately 13,344,806 JPY. Price action shows a strong bearish trend, with a sharp decline from the opening and a lack of follow-through buying.

Structure & Formations

Key support appears to have been rejected at 84,418, where a bullish reversal candle failed to ignite a rebound. Resistance levels at 85,211 and 85,754 were tested and broken, suggesting short-term bearish sentiment. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed at 85,525, signaling a continuation of the downtrend. A small doji at 85,312 may indicate a potential pause, but given the context, it appears to be part of a larger consolidation before further declines.

Moving Averages and Volatility Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average is bearishly aligned with the 50-period MA, both trending downward and confirming the bearish momentum. On daily charts, the 50/100/200-period MAs are likely in a bearish convergence as well, though full daily data was not available. Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction in volatility around 85,312, indicating a possible breakout is imminent. Price currently sits near the lower band, suggesting a potential continuation of the downward move.

Momentum and Volume Analysis

RSI is well within oversold territory at the 24-hour close, but the decline lacks confirmation from volume. A volume spike at 85,194 provided brief bullish hope but faded quickly, indicating weak conviction in any short-term reversal. Notional turnover remains muted, suggesting a lack of broad participation from institutional or large retail investors, which could delay a significant bounce. Price and turnover divergence remains a key risk for further downside.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy relies on RSI overbought/oversold signals to generate sell and buy entries. While the RSI for BCH/JPY is currently in oversold territory, the lack of a confirmed reversal candle and muted volume suggest that any bounce may lack conviction. To validate this approach, a reliable RSI series must be obtained for BCH/JPY, ideally using a ticker symbol the data provider recognizes (e.g., BINANCE:BCHJPY or KRAKEN:BCHJPY). Once RSI data is retrieved, sell signals could be generated when RSI crosses above 70 and exit signals when it drops below 30. Historical testing from Jan-2022 would help confirm the strategy’s robustness.