Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) Market Overview: 2025-09-19

• BCHJPY traded in a broad downward trend with key support levels forming below 90,000.
• Volatility increased during the drop from 94,657 to 89,000, with heavy volume at the bottom.
• RSI and MACD signal oversold conditions, hinting at possible near-term stabilization.
• Bollinger Bands show contraction after the sharp decline, suggesting a potential breakout.
• Fibonacci retracement levels are likely to be tested at 90,000 and 91,000 in the short term.

At 12:00 ET – 1 on 2025-09-18, BCHJPY opened at 94,657 and reached a high of 94,657 before closing at 89,876 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19. The 24-hour low was 89,000, with total volume traded at approximately 208.33 units and a notional turnover of roughly 18,841,539.5 JPY.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data reveals a sharp bearish bias with a significant breakdown from 94,657 to as low as 89,000, indicating strong short-term pressure. A bearish engulfing pattern is observed at the initial decline phase, followed by a long lower shadow near the close, suggesting rejection of lower levels. A doji at the 90,000 level indicates indecision and potential support. Key support levels appear to be forming around 90,000 and 89,000, with resistance retesting at 91,000 and 92,000 likely in the coming days.

Moving Averages & Momentum

Using 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, the price is currently below both, confirming bearish momentum. The 50-period MA is flattening, suggesting a possible slowdown in the downward trend. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA is well below current levels, reinforcing a longer-term bearish setup. MACD is in negative territory with a weak signal line, indicating weakening momentum. RSI has dropped into oversold territory, hinting at possible near-term bounce but without a clear reversal yet.

Volatility & Volume

Volatility spiked during the sharp decline from 94,657 to 89,000, with the largest single candle move observed at 92,905 to 92,445. Volume spiked during the 23:15–23:30 ET timeframe, confirming bearish sentiment. However, volume has declined near the current 89,876 close, suggesting a potential short-term exhaustion. The price and volume show some divergence near 90,000, which could hint at a possible reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 15-minute swing from 94,657 to 89,000, the 38.2% level is at 91,977 and the 61.8% level at 90,338. The price is currently near the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting potential resistance. On the daily chart, the broader move has retraced into the 61.8% level at 90,300–90,500, which could offer support or resistance depending on buyer participation in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish exhaustion and oversold RSI, a potential long bias at the 38.2% to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone could be considered. A backtest strategy could involve entering a long position when price retests 90,000–90,300 with a stop below 89,500 and a target above 91,000. This aligns with the recent volume distribution and retracement levels, suggesting a possible short-term reversal. The MACD crossover and RSI divergence further support this hypothesis, though confirmation via price action and volume would be essential to manage risk.