Bitcoin Cash/Tether (BCHUSDT) Market Overview – October 4, 2025

• Price opened at $606.3 and closed at $589.2, with a high of $615.3 and low of $584.3.
• A sharp bearish reversal emerged after 20:00 ET with a large bearish candle and heavy volume.
• RSI fell below 30 for extended periods, signaling oversold conditions and potential short-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded during late ET hours, with price breaching lower Bollinger Band.
• Turnover spiked near $590 and $585 as buyers attempted to defend key support levels.

Overview and Context

Bitcoin Cash/Tether (BCHUSDT) opened at $606.3 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and closed at $589.2 by the same time on October 4. Over the 24-hour period, the pair traded as high as $615.3 and as low as $584.3. Total volume amounted to approximately 1955.386 BCH, with notional turnover reaching $1,172,784 (approximate, based on cumulative volume and price averages). The session was characterized by a strong bearish bias, particularly during the latter half of the cycle.

Structure & Formations

A key support level formed around $585–$587, with several candles printing near this range and showing buying interest. Between 03:15 ET and 05:00 ET, a sequence of bearish harami and spinning top patterns suggested indecision and weakening bullish momentum. The most significant bearish reversal occurred after 20:00 ET, marked by a large bearish candle with a high volume spike. This candle, followed by continued selling into the overnight hours, confirmed a shift in sentiment. Notable resistance levels emerged at $595–$597 and $605–$607, where price struggled to break above during multiple attempts.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart saw price fall well below the 20-period (60-minute) and 50-period (7.5-hour) moving averages during the latter half of the session, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period MA, forming a bearish death cross, and price remains below the 200-period MA, indicating a prolonged downtrend. The 15-minute indicators are likely to play a role in short-term bounce attempts.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative early in the session and remained well below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. By the overnight hours, the histogram had expanded significantly in the negative zone, showing increasing bearish strength. RSI fell below 30 multiple times, most notably after 01:00 ET and again before 06:00 ET, suggesting that the asset was entering oversold territory. A short-term bounce could be expected, but without a clear breakout above $607, the longer-term bearish trend is likely to persist.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands experienced a moderate expansion as volatility increased during the bearish wave. Price broke below the lower band for the first time around 01:45 ET and continued to trade within the lower half of the band for much of the session. This expansion suggests increased risk and potential for a bounce from the oversold area. However, the absence of a clear reversal candle at the lower band raises the possibility of a deeper test of support at $580–$585.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the bearish phase, particularly around the large candle at 20:00 ET, indicating strong selling pressure. Turnover also increased around key support levels, such as $590 and $585, suggesting attempts by buyers to stabilize the price. However, these attempts failed to produce a decisive reversal. A divergence between price and turnover was observed during the late ET hours — while price continued to fall, turnover began to wane, hinting at exhaustion among sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 15-minute swing from the high at $615.3 to the low at $584.3, the 38.2% level is around $598.0 and the 61.8% level is near $591.4. Price briefly tested the 61.8% level twice during the overnight session but failed to hold above it. This failure implies that the 50% retracement level (~$599.7) may serve as a potential target for a short-term bounce if the RSI overbought levels are reached and buyers step in.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on shorting opportunities when RSI dips below 30 and price closes below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, as occurred during the overnight hours. The formation of large bearish candles during this phase, particularly the one at 20:00 ET, could serve as confirmation signals. A stop-loss could be placed just above the nearest resistance level, such as $595.5, while the initial target might be set at $585–$587. If this pattern is consistent across multiple days, it may indicate a reliable short-term bearish setup during periods of high volatility and oversold conditions.