Bitcoin's Bull Run Rewrites the Rules of Risk and Reward

Bitcoin surged past $113,600 on September 10, 2025, confirming a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern that signaled a potential resumption of a broader upward trend. This price movement followed softer-than-expected U.S. producer price index (PPI) data, which reduced expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, boosting risk-on sentiment across asset classes. The breakout is viewed as the end of a recent pullback from record highs above $124,000 and could indicate renewed bullish momentum in the market.

Technical indicators further support the positive outlook. The measured move projection from the pattern suggests that Bitcoin could potentially reach as high as $120,000. This estimate is based on the distance between the pattern's low and the breakout level, added to the breakout price. The ascending 50-, 100-, and 200-hour simple moving averages (SMAs) also align with the trend, reinforcing the strength of the upward movement.

On the daily chart, the MACD histogram crossed above zero, a key confirmation of a positive shift in market sentiment. Traders and analysts noted that this crossover is typically associated with increasing buying pressure and a strengthening of bullish momentum. The positive divergence between price and sentiment has led many to question whether the recent gains can be sustained, particularly given the market’s mixed reaction to previous bullish news.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin bulls may face resistance at the 50-day SMA, currently around $114,700. This level is closely watched by traders and could act as a short-term cap on price appreciation if selling pressure intensifies. On the downside, the recent higher low of approximately $110,000 is a critical support level that bears are likely to test. A break below this level could invalidate the bullish pattern and prompt a reevaluation of the broader trend.

Market participants remain cautiously optimistic, with many attributing the recent price action to a broader shift in macroeconomic expectations. The upcoming release of U.S. consumer inflation data will be closely monitored as it could either reinforce or challenge the current bullish sentiment. For now, the technical outlook and market psychology suggest a continuation of the upward trend, although traders are advised to remain vigilant in managing risk and expectations.