Bitcoin's Bull Run Faces Uncertainty as Key Metrics Diverge

Bitcoin has recently experienced a notable decline from its recent highs, sparking debate among analysts about whether the bull market has come to an end. Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant, suggests that the market may be entering a bear phase based on key on-chain data. However, not all analysts share this perspective. James Van Straten, a Senior Analyst, argues that there is still significant momentum in the market, supported by various charts and metrics.

One of the key metrics discussed is the Bitcoin Realized Cap, which provides a more accurate picture of the total investment made by holders rather than the current market value. Ki Young Ju points out that when the Bitcoin Realized Cap continues to rise while the Market Cap does not follow suit, it often indicates buyer fatigue. Historically, this mismatch has been observed at the end of bull runs, suggesting that the market may be nearing its peak.

James Van Straten, however, presents a different viewpoint. He argues that the current market behavior does not align with typical bear market characteristics. One of the key indicators he highlights is the Bitcoin Realized Cap drawdown, which measures how far it has fallen from its peak. In past bear markets, this number has dropped significantly as investors sold at a loss. However, in the current scenario, the drawdown has been minimal, indicating that investors are not panicking and selling their holdings.

Van Straten further notes that the Bitcoin Realized Cap has been increasing despite the dip in BTC price, suggesting that people are still buying rather than panic-selling. He emphasizes that bear markets typically do not start with confidence and inflows, implying that the current dip may just be a temporary setback rather than the beginning of a prolonged bear market.

The price action of Bitcoin has also been closely monitored. Initially, Bitcoin trended lower within a descending channel before a sharp breakout triggered by oversold RSI conditions. The price surged but soon entered a sideways range between $78,000 support and $81,000 resistance. Multiple overbought RSI readings and alternating golden/death crosses on the MACD indicated indecision in the market. Despite attempts to breach resistance, momentum faded, and price action turned neutral. Support at $78,000 remains intact, attracting buying interest on dips. The failure to sustain above $80,000 suggests weakening bullish pressure.

In conclusion, it is too early to definitively call the end of Bitcoin's bull cycle. While on-chain signals indicate weaker price responses despite new capital entering the market, a classic late-stage bull sign, the Realized Cap shows that investors are holding firm with no major signs of panic or exit. Bitcoin tends to test conviction during uncertain phases like this, and traders should closely watch these levels for potential price swings as the market continues to react to macroeconomic factors and broader trends.