Is the Bitcoin Bull Market in Structural Decline?

The Bitcoin market in late 2025 presents a paradox: technical indicators signal a bearish turn, yet institutional resilience suggests a deeper structural strength. As the price tumbles from $120,000 to $80,000 over six weeks, erasing $1.2 trillion in market value, investors face a critical question: Is this a temporary correction, or does it mark the end of a multi-year bull cycle? This analysis examines conflicting technical signals, on-chain metrics, and institutional behavior to assess whether Bitcoin's fundamentals can withstand deteriorating sentiment.

Technical Breakdowns: A Bearish Crossroads

Bitcoin's technical indicators paint a mixed but increasingly bearish picture. The 200-day moving average (MA) stands at $88,551.80, historically a buy signal, while the 5-day MA at $90,928.39 suggests immediate selling pressure. However, the 50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA-a "death cross"-has triggered bearish alarms, signaling a potential bear market. Compounding this, Bitcoin closed below the 50-week MA for the first time since October 2023, a critical bearish confirmation.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.048 remains in neutral territory but leans slightly bullish according to real-time technical data. Fibonacci retracement levels, however, offer limited clarity. A key pivot at $90,771.92 represents a critical resistance level; a failure to reclaim this could deepen the bearish narrative.

On-chain metrics add nuance. The hash rate declined 6.9% in the week of November 17–24, with the 7-day simple moving average (SMA) dropping to 1,047 EH/s. While the hash rate rebounded to 1.241B TH/s by November 26, the broader trend reflects miner stress as Bitcoin's price approaches cost thresholds. The NVT (Network Value to Transactions) ratio, though not explicitly quantified, suggests undervaluation if transaction fees remain low amid falling prices.

Institutional Resilience: A Counterweight to Volatility

Despite the technical headwinds, institutional behavior reveals a more nuanced story. While U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs faced $3.79 billion in outflows in November, institutions are increasingly accumulating Bitcoin through over-the-counter (OTC) channels and direct holdings. For instance, Texas allocated $10 million to Bitcoin via ETFs and plans to transition to self-custodied assets, while Harvard University boosted its IBIT holdings to $443 million.

Corporate treasuries, including MicroStrategy's 257,000 BTC acquisition in 2024, underscore Bitcoin's role as a strategic reserve asset. By October 2025, corporate Bitcoin reserves had surged to $117 billion, with 172 listed companies collectively holding over 1 million BTC. Governments and institutional bodies now control 463,000 BTC, or 2.3% of the total supply, reflecting growing institutional confidence.

This resilience is further reinforced by Bitcoin's shrinking supply and adoption as monetary infrastructure. Even as miners struggle with profitability at $88,000, many are HODLing Bitcoin rather than selling, anticipating a rebound. The network's difficulty adjustment is expected to decrease by 1.43% on November 26, which may also provide temporary relief to miners.

Conflicting Signals: Bearish Momentum vs. Structural Strength

The bearish case hinges on deteriorating macroeconomic conditions. Federal Reserve policy shifts-specifically, the collapse of rate-cut expectations from 97% to 22% in late November-and surging Japanese 10-year yields have tightened global liquidity. This, combined with a $2 billion liquidation during the crash, has amplified short-term selling pressure.

However, structural arguments counter that Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals remain intact. The NVT ratio's decline below historical lows hints at undervaluation, while institutional OTC accumulation suggests a shift from speculative trading to strategic holding. For example, Mubadala Investment Co. tripled its IBIT holdings to $517.6 million in Q3 2025, and BlackRock, Fidelity, and Ark continued accumulating despite ETF outflows.

Actionable Insights for the Next 6–12 Months

Investors must navigate this duality by balancing risk mitigation with long-term positioning. Here are three key strategies:

1. Hedge Against Volatility with Diversified Exposure: Given the bearish technical signals, investors should reduce speculative exposure to Bitcoin ETFs and prioritize OTC channels or direct holdings, where institutional demand remains robust.

2. Monitor NVT and Hash Rate Trends: A rebound in the NVT ratio above its historical low band could signal undervaluation, while a stabilization in the hash rate would indicate miner resilience. These metrics may provide early warnings of a potential reversal.

3. Leverage Institutional Confidence: Allocate to Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, mirroring corporate and sovereign strategies. With 2.3% of the total supply already held by institutions, Bitcoin's institutional adoption is likely to accelerate as macroeconomic conditions stabilize.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's bull market is not in structural decline but in a transitional phase. While technical indicators and macroeconomic headwinds justify caution, institutional resilience and long-term fundamentals suggest a floor to the current selloff. Investors who position for both volatility and structural adoption may find themselves well-placed to capitalize on the next leg of Bitcoin's journey.