Bitcoin Bull Cycle Shows Maturity With 7% Weekly Decline

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. has recently analyzed the latest developments in the cryptocurrency market, asserting that the current bull cycle is firmly established and the market is evolving towards greater maturity. Adler Jr. highlighted that since the bull cycle began in November 2022, Bitcoin has undergone only two significant corrections, both exceeding 30% in August 2024 and April 2025. These corrections were followed by swift recoveries and new highs, while other corrections remained within the 10-20% range, acting as typical shake-outs without disrupting the overall uptrend.

Adler Jr. pointed out that the current weekly simple moving average (SMA)-based decline is at -7%, with the present pullback limited to -4.7%. This indicates a stable consolidation phase within the $100,000 to $106,000 range. He also noted the recurring "deep correction-accumulation-new rise" cycle, which is evident in this bull market. The narrowing of retracements signals market maturity, suggesting that strong support at $96,000 will continue to drive the bull trend, potentially leading to new all-time highs (ATH) unless there is a significant negative news event.

Another key observation by Adler Jr. was the decrease in BTC flows on centralized exchanges (CEX). The daily average total flow volume (input + output) has dropped to 40,000 BTC, the lowest level in a decade. This trend indicates that investors are withdrawing their BTC from exchanges to hold for the long term, potentially leading to a liquidity shortage in the market. The weekly net flow remains negative at -4,300 BTC, showing that the amount of coins deposited is lagging behind the amount withdrawn. However, the 30-day average inflow/outflow is comparable to the end of 2023 and the beginning of the bull market, suggesting that demand for Bitcoin remains robust.

Adler Jr. emphasized that the current bull cycle is characterized by a more mature market, with retracements gradually narrowing. This maturity is a strong signal that the bull trend will continue, potentially reaching new all-time highs. He noted that unless there is a serious negative news flow, the strong support at $96,000 will continue to drive the bull trend. Adler Jr.'s analysis suggests a positive outlook for Bitcoin, with the potential for new all-time highs if the market continues to mature and demand remains strong.