Bitcoin's Next Big Break: $100,000 or $120,000?

Bitcoin's next move is uncertain, with traders debating whether it will dip to $100,000 or rise to $120,000. Market analysts emphasize the importance of support and resistance levels, while institutional interest and global events shape its trajectory. Rising trading volume and a split in sentiment indicators highlight the inherent volatility and unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market. Long-term holders should stay patient, understanding market cycles and staying informed about exchange flows, on-chain activity, and market liquidity.

Bitcoin's next move is uncertain, with traders debating whether it will dip to $100,000 or rise to $120,000. Market analysts emphasize the importance of support and resistance levels, while institutional interest and global events shape its trajectory. Rising trading volume and a split in sentiment indicators highlight the inherent volatility and unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market. Long-term holders should stay patient, understanding market cycles and staying informed about exchange flows, on-chain activity, and market liquidity.

The recent price action of Bitcoin has turned sharply bearish after the price fell below the $110,000 mark, a level that previously served as a strong base for buyers. This breakdown suggests that bullish momentum is losing steam, with traders starting to secure profits after weeks of steady gains. The current correction follows several failed attempts to sustain above $116,000 resistance. As of writing, BTC is trading slightly below $109,000, marking a notable shift in short-term sentiment. This move places Bitcoin at risk of testing lower support zones, as the broader market cools off after an extended rally, according to a Coinpedia analysis.

Technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin is in a cooling phase. The 4-hour and daily charts indicate a clear rejection from the $116,000 resistance zone, followed by a consistent drop in trading volume—often a precursor to a trend reversal. The 20-day moving average has flattened near $111,000, while the 50-day MA is rising toward $107,500. A cross below this level could confirm short-term weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped below 50, indicating that momentum now favors sellers. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has turned negative, hinting at outflows from major wallets and short-term de-risking. The chart now forms a descending channel, suggesting potential downside continuation unless BTC quickly recovers the lost zone, as noted by Coinpedia.

Key support and resistance levels to watch include:
- $110,000–$111,000: Broken support; now an immediate resistance zone.
- $108,000 – $104,000: Near-term demand zone where buyers could reappear.
- $100,000 – $95,000: Major structural support and potential correction target.
- $116,000: Upper resistance to invalidate the bearish setup, a point highlighted by Coinpedia.

If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $110,000 on a daily close, the probability of retesting $104,000–$100,000 increases significantly. On-chain data reflects a slight cooling in accumulation activity. Whale wallet inflows to exchanges have risen modestly over the past 24 hours, hinting at short-term distribution. Meanwhile, derivative funding rates are neutral, implying that traders are not overly leveraged to either side. The overall sentiment remains cautiously bearish, with traders eyeing the next major liquidity zone near $100,000—a level that aligns with Bitcoin’s long-term ascending trendline from mid-2024, Coinpedia also notes.

Two potential scenarios are emerging:
- Bearish Scenario: If selling pressure continues below $108,000, Bitcoin could extend its decline toward $104,000 in the short term. A break under that level exposes $100,000–$95,000 as the next major downside targets.
- Bullish Reversal Scenario: A strong bounce reclaiming $110,000, followed by a close above $112,500, could neutralise the bearish structure. In that case, BTC might attempt another push toward $116,000–$120,000, per Coinpedia.

In a separate development, BTQ Technologies has demonstrated a quantum-safe Bitcoin implementation using NIST-standardized post-quantum cryptography, protecting the $2.4 trillion market at risk. This is a critical milestone in securing the world's largest cryptocurrency against the emerging quantum threat, according to a Morningstar release.

In conclusion, Bitcoin's next move remains uncertain, with both bullish and bearish scenarios on the table. Long-term holders should stay informed and patient, understanding that market cycles and technical indicators will play a crucial role in shaping its trajectory. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, staying updated on exchange flows, on-chain activity, and market liquidity will be essential for navigating this volatile landscape.