Bitcoin's Bearish Options Skew Reveals Cautious Traders Despite Fed Easing

Bitcoin traders have increased their purchases of downside protection following the Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point rate cut, reflecting persistent caution despite broader market optimism. Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange, reported a negative options skew across all timeframes, indicating elevated demand for put options to hedge against potential price declines. This behavior contrasts with typical bullish sentiment post-rate cuts, where call options dominate due to expectations of rising asset prices. The 30-day implied volatility for Bitcoin (BTC) remains subdued at 24%, the lowest level in two years, underscoring a cautious market environment .

The Federal Reserve’s decision to ease monetary policy, coupled with the SEC’s new generic listing standard for crypto ETFs, has not fully alleviated concerns among traders. Deribit’s CEO Luuk Strijers noted that the market is “waiting for the next catalyst” to break the current stalemate between cautious positioning and optimism. The bearish skew suggests traders are hedging against scenarios where the Fed’s easing is already priced in, and a deteriorating macroeconomic outlook could reduce demand for risk assets like Bitcoin . This sentiment is reinforced by the continued premium on put options, with the seven, 30, 60, and 90-day skews slightly negative, and the 180-day skew neutral, according to Amberdata .

Bitcoin’s price action has mirrored this duality. While BTC rose over 4% to $116,977 in seven days ahead of the Fed’s September 17 decision, ether (ETH) gained nearly 8% to $4,650, reflecting improved risk appetite. However, the market’s reaction to the Fed’s rate cut remains contingent on its magnitude. A surprise 50 basis point cut—a scenario with a small probability—could trigger a “+gamma BUY signal” for BTC and other cryptocurrencies, according to Greg Magadini of Amberdata. Conversely, a 25 bps cut in line with expectations may result in a “grind higher” for Bitcoin, with ETH needing additional time to retest all-time highs .

Deribit’s data highlights a maturing options market, where strategies like covered call writing—selling call options against spot holdings to generate premium income—have become more prevalent. This approach, while capping upside potential, has contributed to the put bias observed in longer-dated options. Sirah Farik, Deribit’s global head of retail sales, likened BTC options behavior to S&P index options, signaling a shift toward institutional-grade risk management . Meanwhile, the put-to-call premium ratio at Deribit stands at 71%, indicating moderate but not extreme fear, with levels above 180% typically reserved for panic-driven environments .

The broader macroeconomic landscape adds complexity. While the Fed’s easing is expected to weaken the U.S. dollar and boost risk assets, concerns about AI-related trade tensions—such as China’s restrictions on advanced microchip purchases—have dampened short-term optimism. Bitcoin’s failure to sustain gains above $117,000 and the mixed signals from derivatives markets suggest traders are prioritizing risk mitigation over aggressive long bets. This cautious stance is further supported by $292 million in net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, which have bolstered bullish expectations despite the bearish options environment .

As the market awaits the Fed’s next move, the balance between caution and optimism remains delicate. Traders are hedging against a potential correction while maintaining exposure to upside scenarios driven by macroeconomic easing. The outcome of the Fed’s rate decision and subsequent policy trajectory will likely determine whether Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase transitions into a sustained rally or gives way to renewed volatility.