Es inevitable que el mercado de Bitcoin se desplome? Análisis del fin del ciclo de alza 2024-2025

The 2024–2025 Bitcoin bull cycle, fueled by unprecedented institutional adoption and regulatory clarity, has reached a critical inflection point. While Q3 2025 saw record inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and a surge in institutional allocations, Q4 has revealed early signs of demand exhaustion and behavioral shifts that could signal the cycle's end. This analysis examines the interplay of institutional flows, regulatory dynamics, and market sentiment to assess whether a bear market looms on the horizon.

Institutional Adoption: A Double-Edged Sword

The 2024–2025 bull run was underpinned by institutional confidence, driven by regulatory milestones such as the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and the passage of the GENIUS Act. By Q3 2025, institutional investors accounted for 57% of 13F-reported Bitcoin assets, with Harvard's endowment increasing its holdings by 257%. Traditional financial giants like Wells Fargo and JP Morgan also expanded their Bitcoin positions, treating the asset as a "store of value" akin to gold according to institutional filings.

However, this institutional embrace created a fragile equilibrium. As of Q3, 89% of U.S. Bitcoin ETF assets were concentrated in Grayscale, BlackRock, and Fidelity, reflecting a reliance on established custodians. This centralization, while initially stabilizing, may have exacerbated systemic risks when confidence began to wane.

Q4 2025: The Outflow Tsunami

The first cracks in the bull cycle emerged in Q4 2025, marked by a dramatic reversal in institutional flows. According to a Bloomberg report, U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs lost $3.5 billion in November 2025 alone, with BlackRock's IBIT fund recording $2.2 billion in redemptions. This outflow surpassed the previous record set in February 2025 and coincided with a 30% drop in Bitcoin's price during the same period.

The Adler Risk Thermometer and Valuation Band models further underscored the severity of the shift. Weekly ETF outflows exceeding $500 million were identified as a key indicator of market exhaustion, suggesting that institutional investors are no longer viewing Bitcoin as a "safe haven" but rather as a volatile asset to be hedged against macroeconomic risks.

Regulatory Uncertainty and Behavioral Shifts

While the Trump administration's pro-crypto policies initially spurred adoption, recent regulatory developments have introduced new uncertainties. The SEC's rescinding of stringent crypto accounting guidance and its "token taxonomy" framework-clarifying that most tokens are not securities-provided short-term relief. However, the stalled CLARITY Act and unresolved CFTC authority have left a regulatory gray zone.

Compounding this, the CFPB's financial crisis in late 2025-a "zombie regulator" scenario-shifted supervisory priorities toward cost-cutting and reduced enforcement. This created a paradox: while deregulation lowered compliance burdens, it also eroded institutional confidence in the stability of the regulatory environment. The CFPB's "Humility in Supervision" approach, emphasizing limited information requests and advance notice for institutions, further signaled a retreat from proactive oversight.

Global Context and Market Psychology

Globally, stablecoin regulation advanced in 2025, with 70% of jurisdictions introducing new frameworks. Yet, this progress failed to offset the domestic outflows. The Abu Dhabi Investment Council's bullish stance-comparing Bitcoin to gold-highlighted its perceived long-term value according to institutional filings. However, institutional behavior in Q4 suggests a shift from strategic allocation to tactical hedging, driven by macroeconomic headwinds and a lack of conviction in Bitcoin's utility as a yield-bearing asset.

Conclusion: A Bear Market on the Horizon?

The confluence of demand exhaustion, regulatory ambiguity, and institutional outflows paints a cautionary picture. While Bitcoin's normalization as a financial asset is irreversible, the 2024–2025 bull cycle appears to have reached its peak. Investors must now navigate a landscape where institutional confidence is fragile, and market psychology is increasingly bearish.

For now, the data suggests that the bear market is not imminent but accelerating. The question is no longer if the cycle will end, but how quickly it will unfold.