Bitcoin/Argentine Peso Market Overview

Summary
• Price declined in a volatile 24-hour window with a high of 157,858,055 ARS and low of 154,000,100 ARS.
• Multiple bearish reversal patterns emerged, including engulfing and long lower shadows.
• Volume was unevenly distributed, with a notable drop in trading activity post 04:00 ET.
• RSI showed signs of oversold conditions near 30 but failed to trigger a sustained recovery.
• Bollinger Bands indicated a recent volatility expansion, suggesting heightened market uncertainty.

Bitcoin/Argentine Peso (BTCARS) opened at 155,497,220 ARS on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET and closed at 154,781,231 ARS on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high reached 157,858,055 ARS while the low dipped to 154,000,100 ARS. Total volume across the period was approximately 1.34 BTC, with a notional turnover of 207,863,166,250 ARS.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick chart reveals several bearish reversal formations, including a bearish engulfing pattern around 19:30 ET and a long lower shadow at 08:00 ET, both suggesting rejection of higher prices. Key support levels appear to be forming around the 154,700,000 ARS and 154,000,000 ARS zones, which have been tested multiple times over the past 24 hours. Resistance remains untested above the 155,500,000 ARS level, which appears to cap upward momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs have been in a bearish crossover configuration for the past 6 hours, reinforcing the downtrend. The daily timeframe has seen the 50-period and 200-period SMA converge near the 155,500,000 ARS level, acting as a dynamic resistance.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has been in negative territory for most of the 24-hour window, with bearish divergence observed around 05:00 ET and 09:00 ET. RSI dipped below 30 at 06:15 ET and 11:30 ET but failed to trigger a sustained bounce, remaining in oversold territory. This suggests exhaustion in the downward move, but not necessarily an immediate reversal.

Bollinger Bands

The price has spent much of the session near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating high volatility and bearish momentum. A slight expansion in band width occurred around 19:00 ET, which may suggest increased uncertainty or a potential reversal attempt.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 15-minute window from 19:00 to 19:30 ET, coinciding with a sharp drop from 156,462,845 ARS to 155,951,977 ARS. However, subsequent price action failed to confirm this as a breakout, with volume declining rapidly after 04:00 ET. Divergence between volume and price is evident in the final hours of the session, as price continued lower despite diminishing turnover.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the 157,858,055 ARS high to the 154,000,100 ARS low suggest 155,450,000 ARS as a key 38.2% level and 154,700,000 ARS as a potential 61.8% level. Price action shows repeated testing of the 61.8% level, reinforcing its significance as a potential short-term floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bearish bias observed through RSI and MACD, a potential backtest strategy could be based on RSI triggers: entering short positions when RSI dips below 30 and closing them when it rises above 70. However, the failure of RSI to trigger a recovery despite hitting oversold levels suggests that additional filters—such as confirmation via Bollinger Bands or volume spikes—could improve signal quality. If executed without overlays, this strategy may capture short-term momentum but could be vulnerable to false signals. A more robust approach would incorporate a stop-loss near the 155,500,000 ARS resistance level to limit downside risk during unexpected rebounds.