Bitcoin Analysts Optimistic as China Fixes Yuan Beyond 7.2 Level

In a surprising move, China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), set the yuan’s daily fix at 7.2038 per dollar on April 8, 2025, marking the weakest level since September 2024. This decision, likely a response to President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs, has sparked optimism among crypto analysts who see potential parallels to historical events that favored Bitcoin (BTC).

The yuan’s depreciation beyond the 7.2 level, a psychological barrier for the Chinese currency, signals a shift in the PBOC’s strategy. Historically, the 7.2 level has been considered a “harder line in the sand” for the central bank, but the recent move indicates a managed depreciation aimed at keeping China’s exports competitive amidst escalating trade tensions.



Analysts are drawing parallels to the yuan’s devaluation in August 2015, when the PBOC devalued the currency by 1.9% in a single day. This event sent shockwaves through global financial markets, initially causing Bitcoin to fall over 20% alongside U.S. stocks. However, within four months, Bitcoin surged nearly 60% as capital sought safe havens.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, noted in a client note that the U.S. is pursuing full-scale economic pressure on China, which may force the country to respond with quantitative easing and currency devaluation. If China permits capital flight, Bitcoin could surge, much like it did in 2015.

Ben Zhou, CEO and founder of the crypto exchange Bybit, echoed this sentiment, stating that whenever the yuan drops, a significant amount of Chinese capital flows into Bitcoin. This historical trend suggests that the current depreciation could be bullish for Bitcoin.

However, the regulatory landscape in China has changed significantly since 2015. The country has become increasingly anti-crypto, citing financial stability risks. A new regulation announced earlier this year requires banks to monitor and report suspicious international transactions, including those involving cryptocurrency. This stringent stance means local traders may face significant hurdles in diversifying into Bitcoin amid sustained yuan depreciation.

The Supreme People’s Court has also increased legal risks for individuals using cryptocurrencies in connection with money laundering, which could easily extend to cases of capital flight. This presents a major deterrent, despite rising economic uncertainty.

Despite these regulatory challenges, the overall crypto market has shown resilience. As of March 26, 2025, the total crypto market capitalization stood at $2.44 trillion, representing a 5.86% decrease from the previous week. Bitcoin remains the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, with a 24-hour trading volume increase of 66.69% over the past day.

The yuan’s depreciation could also trigger capital flight from China, which may find its way into cryptocurrencies. However, the stringent regulatory environment in China poses significant challenges to this scenario. The country’s harsh regulations and enhanced bank monitoring requirements create a major deterrent for capital flight via Bitcoin.

In conclusion, while the yuan’s depreciation beyond the 7.2 level presents a potential bullish catalyst for Bitcoin, the regulatory challenges in China and the complex interplay of macroeconomic factors will shape its trajectory. Investors should closely monitor the evolving regulatory landscape and the PBOC’s policy responses to gauge the potential impact on Bitcoin’s price movements.