La trayectoria de Bitcoin y las altcoins en el primer trimestre de 2026: Resiliencia técnica y factores macroeconómicos que pueden influir en su comportamiento.

The first quarter of 2026 has emerged as a pivotal period for cryptocurrencies, with a convergence of macroeconomic tailwinds and technical indicators suggesting a potential bull run. As the Federal Reserve pauses quantitative tightening (QT) and signals accommodative policy shifts, Bitcoin and altcoins are poised to benefit from renewed liquidity and institutional participation. Meanwhile, on-chain metrics and derivative market dynamics underscore a resilient technical foundation, even as risks from macroeconomic volatility and regulatory uncertainty persist.

Macroeconomic Catalysts: Fed Policy and Liquidity Dynamics

The Federal Reserve's decision to halt QT and resume Treasury bill purchases in early 2026 has injected critical liquidity into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. This move, while not traditional quantitative easing (QE), has historically supported equities and crypto markets by stabilizing short-end liquidity. Analysts project that further rate cuts in 2026 could amplify this effect, reducing funding costs and boosting speculative demand. Political considerations also play a role: policymakers may prioritize market stability ahead of U.S. midterms in November 2026, reducing the likelihood of regulatory shocks.

Institutional demand has rebounded, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $385.9 million in net inflows for the first week of January 2026, reversing December's outflows. However, subsequent volatility-exemplified by over $1 billion in outflows-highlights sensitivity to macroeconomic data and supply-side concerns.

Technical Resilience: RSI, MACD, and On-Chain Metrics

Bitcoin's technical indicators suggest a consolidation phase ahead of a potential breakout. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stabilized near 56 in early Q1 2026, indicating positive but not overheated momentum. The MACD has turned bullish with a crossover, signaling exhaustion of selling pressure and a potential reversal akin to prior cycles in 2023 and 2024. Key resistance levels at $94,589 and $94,588, if breached, could propel Bitcoin toward $98,000–$102,000 or even $160,000–$180,000 by Q1 2026. Critical support at $84,450 and $80,600 must hold to validate these scenarios.

On-chain metrics reinforce this narrative. Total open interest in Bitcoin surged by 11.3% to $34.81 billion, while volatility compressed to the 25th percentile, suggesting a high probability of sharp directional moves if a catalyst emerges. Institutional orderbook depth and inflows further confirm sustained exposure, contrasting with retail caution reflected in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which remains in the "fear" range.

Altcoins: Rotation and On-Chain Momentum

Altcoins are showing early signs of a market rotation, driven by favorable technical and on-chain conditions. The ALT/BTC ratio, which had been in a four-year downtrend, now exhibits oversold RSI levels and a bullish MACD crossover after 21 months of bearish momentum. Ethereum's network activity hit record highs in December 2025, with 2.23 million daily transactions post-Fusaka upgrade.

However, its NVT ratio of 1,041 in January 2026 suggests overvaluation relative to transaction activity.

XRP has emerged as a standout performer, with U.S.-listed ETFs amassing $1.37 billion in assets and price targets revised to $50–$100. Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) are also gaining traction, with strong presale performance and on-chain inflows. Meanwhile, stablecoin flows turned positive in January 2026, signaling capital re-entry into the crypto ecosystem.

Risks and Constraints

Despite the bullish case, risks remain. A weak labor market could delay Fed rate cuts, while geopolitical tensions or policy missteps might trigger a bearish correction in the $70,000–$80,000 range. Altcoins face additional headwinds, including $657 million in supply shocks from token unlocks. Retail accumulation of Bitcoin has increased, but whale distribution has cooled, potentially reducing sell pressure from large holders.

Conclusion

Q1 2026 presents a compelling case for Bitcoin and altcoins, driven by Fed policy shifts, technical consolidation, and institutional inflows. While Bitcoin's path to $180,000–$200,000 hinges on macroeconomic stability and support level integrity, altcoins like XRP and Hyper could outperform amid a rotation into risk assets. Investors should monitor Fed communications, ETF flows, and on-chain metrics for confirmation of a sustained bull phase.