Bitcoin's $94,895 Breakout: A 1-2 Day Trade Setup Hinging on the Senate Vote

The ascending triangle pattern is a classic bullish continuation signal. It forms when price action is squeezed between a flat resistance line and a rising support line, creating a narrowing range. This shape tells a simple story: sellers are holding the price at a ceiling, but buyers are growing bolder with each attempt, pushing the lows higher. The pattern signals that the prior uptrend is likely to resume after this consolidation.

Bitcoin is currently testing the upper resistance of this formation near $94,895. The immediate binary catalyst for a 1-2 day trade hinges entirely on the Senate vote. The markup and vote on the CLARITY Act is imminent this week, and the outcome will determine whether the breakout is confirmed or rejected.

The Trade Mechanics: Entry, Stop, Target, and Volume Confirmation

For a 1-2 day trade, the setup demands precision. The entry condition is clear: a decisive break above the ascending triangle's upper resistance at $94,895. This move must be accompanied by volume confirmation. Without a surge in trading activity, the breakout is likely a false signal, a "fakeout" that will quickly reverse.

The stop-loss is equally critical. It should be placed just below the key support level at $90,000. This level acts as the floor for the bullish thesis. A daily close below it would invalidate the pattern and trigger a bearish reversal. The immediate downside target in that scenario is the next major support at $87,210.

The primary risk here is twofold. First, the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act could fail, removing a major catalyst for bullish momentum. Second, even if the vote passes, price could fail to hold the $90,000 support, leading to a swift drop. The trade's entire mechanics hinge on the Senate vote confirming the breakout's legitimacy and price holding its ground. Volume is the real-time validator; its absence would be the first red flag to exit the trade.

The Forward View: What to Watch and Scenarios

The bullish thesis for Bitcoin hinges on two immediate, binary outcomes within the next 1-2 days. Traders must watch the Senate markup of the CLARITY Act and the price action at the $90,000 support level for confirmation or rejection.

The markup outcome is the primary catalyst. A successful markup clears a major legislative hurdle and provides a tangible reason for bullish momentum to persist. This event, combined with the improving market sentiment, could provide the final push needed to break above the ascending triangle's upper resistance at $94,895. The sentiment shift is measurable: the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metric has climbed from −10.2% to −7.8%, signaling shrinking network-wide losses and easing stress among holders. This environment reduces the threat of panic-driven selling and supports steadier price discovery as Bitcoin approaches key resistance.

The critical technical level to watch is the $90,000 support. A decisive break above $94,895, confirmed by volume, would validate the breakout and point toward a move toward $100,000. However, the primary risk is a failure to hold above $90,000. A daily close below that level would invalidate the bullish ascending triangle pattern and signal a deeper pullback. In that scenario, the next major support is at $87,210. The trade's entire setup-entry, stop, target-depends on these two factors aligning. The Senate vote confirms the catalyst, and the $90,000 floor confirms the market's conviction.