La batalla de Bitcoin por $90K: ¿una oportunidad de compra estratégica entre la volatilidad?

Bitcoin's price action in December 2025 has painted a complex picture for investors. The $90,000 level-a psychological and technical fulcrum-has become a battleground for bulls and bears. While the asset briefly pierced this threshold during low-liquidity holiday trading, it quickly retreated, leaving traders to question whether this was a fleeting spike or a setup for a sustained breakout. For long-term investors, the answer lies in dissecting the interplay of technical structure, liquidity dynamics, and macroeconomic signals.

The $90K Crossroads: Technical Rebound or False Dawn?

Bitcoin's recent consolidation near $90,000 reflects a tug-of-war between institutional positioning and retail sentiment. According to a report by , the price surged to an intraday high of $90,330 in late December but failed to sustain the level, retreating to $87,465. Analysts from QCP Capital and Presto Research attribute this rebound to short-term technical reactions rather than robust fundamental demand. The lack of volume and open interest to confirm a breakout raises red flags. For instance, Deribit's funding rates spiked above 30%, signaling aggressive bullish positioning, yet this failed to translate into sustained momentum.

However, the $90K level remains a critical inflection point. If bulls can secure a clean break above this threshold, the next target could be $94,000. The challenge lies in the holiday-driven liquidity compression. U.S. trading venues reported BTC spot volume near $34 billion in late December, a stark drop from October's $70 billion peaks. Thin liquidity amplifies volatility but also creates asymmetric opportunities for disciplined buyers.

Liquidity Compression and the Gamma Dance

The $85K to $90K range has become a self-fulfilling prophecy, driven by options market mechanics. As noted by trader David on X, heavy put gamma near $85K acts as a floor, while call gamma near $90K functions as a ceiling. This dynamic creates a "gamma dance," where dips to $85K trigger buying and rallies to $90K trigger selling. For long-term investors, this means dips below $90K-especially those supported by dealer hedging-could be low-risk accumulation points.

The expiration of $27 billion in open interest on Deribit further complicates the narrative. While this reduces the stabilizing effect of the $85K–$90K range, it also sets the stage for a potential resolution. The max pain point at $96K suggests a structural bias toward upside, assuming macroeconomic conditions remain favorable.

ETF Flows and Macro Signals: A Mixed Bag

Bitcoin ETF flows in late December underscore the market's indecision. CoinShares reported $443 million in Bitcoin ETF outflows for the week ending December 29, but this reversed sharply on December 31 with a $355 million net inflow. BlackRock's IBIT and ARKB led the charge, adding $143.8 million and $109.6 million, respectively. While these inflows are encouraging, they remain insufficient to break through $90K without a surge in volume.

Macro factors add another layer of complexity. The Trump administration's tariff policies and broader risk-asset dynamics (e.g., EUR/USD volatility) have created a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces. For long-term investors, these macroeconomic headwinds are less relevant than the structural setup of the $90K battle.

Strategic Accumulation: Dips as Opportunities

For investors with a multi-year horizon, the current volatility presents a unique opportunity. The $85K–$90K range offers a defined risk-reward profile: dips near $85K are historically supported by dealer hedging and options gamma, while a breakout above $90K could trigger a rally toward $96K and beyond. The key is to avoid emotional reactions to short-term noise and instead focus on volume and open interest as confirmation signals.

A dollar-cost averaging strategy-buying dips in the $85K–$90K range-could position investors to capitalize on a potential breakout. Given the thin liquidity environment, even a modest increase in buying pressure could catalyze a sustained move higher.

Risks and Caveats

No investment thesis is without risks. A breakdown below $85K could reignite bearish momentum, particularly if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. Additionally, the lack of sustained volume above $90K suggests that bulls remain vulnerable to a retest of support. Investors must also monitor the Trump administration's regulatory stance, which could introduce new headwinds.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's $90K battle is far from over, but for long-term investors, the current volatility is a feature, not a bug. The interplay of technical structure, options gamma, and liquidity compression creates a high-probability setup for strategic accumulation. While the path forward is not without risks, the potential reward-a breakout to $96K and beyond-justifies a disciplined, patient approach. In a market defined by uncertainty, the ability to separate noise from signal is what separates winners from losers.