Bitcoin's $90K–$100K Bull Trap: A Final Hurdle or a Setup for a Sell-Off?

Bitcoin's price action in late November 2025 has painted a complex picture of resilience and fragility. The $90K–$100K range, long a focal point for traders and investors, is now a battleground where liquidity dynamics and order-book pressures could determine whether this is the final hurdle to a new bull phase or a setup for a sharp sell-off.

The Resilience at $90K and the Path to $100K

Bitcoin's recent rebound from the $90K support level has been fueled by strategic buy walls between $89,800 and $90,200, as highlighted by liquidity heatmaps from Coinglass. These buy walls have pushed the price toward the $92,900 area, where buyers are now consolidating. A sustained move above $94K could trigger a rally toward the $100K liquidity cluster-a region with heavy concentrations of stop orders and liquidation points. This level is not just a technical target but also a psychological one, as it represents a symbolic milestone for long-term holders and short-term traders alike.

However, the path to $100K is far from clear. The $94K threshold acts as a critical filter. If bulls can break through this level, the $100K cluster could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, attracting further buying interest. Conversely, a failure to breach $94K could see the price retest the $88K level, as sellers in the $88K–$91K range have been accumulating liquidity to counter upward momentum.

Order-Book Pressures and Liquidity Clusters

The order-book dynamics in the $90K–$100K range reveal a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. According to data from Coinglass, two major liquidity clusters exist at $100K and $115K, which are pivotal during high-volatility periods. These clusters act as gravitational forces, pulling the price toward them as traders place stop-loss orders and liquidation points. A clean breakout above $94K could energize the $100K target, but the presence of these clusters also means that any rally could be met with aggressive profit-taking or strategic selling.

On the downside, liquidity pockets between $83K and $85K remain active, posing a risk if the current upward momentum stalls. This is particularly concerning given the recent ETF outflows exceeding $1.1 billion over two sessions, which have exacerbated volatility and triggered over $600 million in long position liquidations. The fading hope for Federal Reserve rate cuts and persistent inflation concerns have further weakened the macroeconomic backdrop, adding to the fragility of the current price structure.

The Risk of a Sell-Off Scenario

While the $90K–$94K range has provided a floor for Bitcoin, the risk of a sell-off looms large. The 6–12 month holder cost basis around $94K offers some support, but this is not a guarantee of stability. Analysts warn that the $88K–$91K region is a key battleground, where thin weekend order books could amplify corrections or surges. Market commentator Ted Pillows has noted that weekend-driven rallies often fade once institutional trading volume returns, underscoring the need for weekday follow-through to confirm any breakout.

A failed attempt to break above $94K could trigger a retracement toward the $83K–$85K liquidity pockets, especially if ETF outflows continue or macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. This scenario would not only test the resolve of long-term holders but also expose the fragility of the current bullish narrative.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's $90K–$100K range is a classic bull trap scenario, where liquidity clusters and order-book pressures create both opportunities and risks. The $94K threshold is a make-or-break level for bulls, with a successful breakout opening the door to $100K and beyond. However, the presence of heavy sell-side liquidity in the $88K–$91K range and the fragility of the macroeconomic environment mean that this could also be a setup for a sharp sell-off.

For investors, the key is to monitor order-book depth and liquidity heatmaps closely. A clean break above $94K with strong follow-through volume could validate the bullish case, while a failure to hold above $92K might signal a deeper correction. In either case, the $90K–$100K range will remain a critical focal point for Bitcoin's next move.