El impasse de 90,000 dólares del Bitcoin: Una debilidad estructural frente a una reconfiguración regulatoria

Bitcoin's current price stability is a fragile equilibrium, masking a deeper structural problem. The central investment question is whether this stalemate will break to the downside, revealing a bear market in full force, or if it will hold as a base for a new, fundamentally stronger bull cycle. The evidence points to the former, with deteriorating on-chain fundamentals creating a persistent headwind that improving macro sentiment alone cannot yet overcome.

The market has already entered a bear phase. According to CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno, Bitcoin crossed into a bear market in November 2025, a condition driven by a clear structural contraction in demand. This isn't a temporary dip but the beginning of a trend expected to continue through 2026, with prices likely moving lower. The demand engine that powered the previous cycle-fueled by US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and regulatory tailwinds-has stalled. The recent rush of corporate treasury purchases has also faded, removing a key source of institutional buying. This leaves the market without its primary supports, creating a vacuum that current price action is struggling to fill.

This lack of structural support is evident in market psychology. The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis model shows recent buyers lacking conviction, with price hovering near the lower bound of this critical zone. This positioning reflects a market in defensive mode, where new participants are hesitant to commit capital. For a true recovery to take hold, Bitcoin must reclaim a key psychological and technical threshold: the zone near $99,100. Historically, reclaiming this level signals improving confidence among newer market participants and a shift toward healthier trend dynamics. Until price can sustain a move above this benchmark, recovery signals remain incomplete, and the market risks slipping back into its defensive posture.

The bottom line is that regulatory clarity and macro optimism are necessary but insufficient conditions for a breakout. They provide a floor, but without a visible resurgence in underlying demand-whether from retail, institutions, or corporate treasuries-the current price range is likely to be a battleground. The market is caught between a deteriorating demand story and a hope for a regulatory reset, with the balance tipping toward the former until that structural support materializes.

The Regulatory Catalyst: Accelerating Institutional Adoption

The regulatory landscape is shifting, and this change is the most tangible catalyst for a potential reset in Bitcoin's risk/reward profile. The departure of the SEC's last Democratic commissioner, Caroline Crenshaw, on January 2, 2026, removed the final internal brake on crypto policy. With an all-Republican panel now in control, the agency has signaled a departure from the enforcement-first tactics that defined the past years. This improved regulatory visibility is a necessary condition for sustained institutional capital inflows, as it reduces the legal uncertainty that had held back banks, custodians, and asset managers.

This shift is expected to accelerate institutional adoption and participation in DeFi. The new SEC leadership, under Chair Paul Atkins, has already slowed enforcement activity and is advancing initiatives like Project Crypto, aimed at creating a clearer "token taxonomy" and an "innovation exemption" for faster product launches. These steps directly address the friction that stifled growth. As compliance professionals note, regulatory frameworks are increasingly prioritizing national strategic goals like innovation and competitiveness, creating a more favorable environment for new entrants.

Progress on legislation like the GENIUS Act further compounds this momentum. As the US Treasury and other bodies work on implementing its provisions, new participants-including stablecoin issuers and tech firms-will gain clearer pathways to enter the market. This legislative push, combined with the SEC's more predictable posture, is likely to bring important new capital and use cases into the ecosystem.

Yet, for all its promise, improved regulatory clarity is not a guarantee of immediate price action. It provides a structural floor and a longer-term tailwind, but it does not automatically offset the on-chain demand contraction that defines the current bear market. The market's recent rally above $93,000 following Crenshaw's exit shows the relief trade in motion. However, the bottom line is that this regulatory reset is a necessary condition for a new, structurally driven cycle. It changes the narrative from one of existential legal risk to one of liquidity and macro alignment, but the fundamental question of whether underlying demand can re-accelerate remains unanswered.

The ETF Engine: Tactical Volatility vs. Strategic Demand

The ETF narrative is central to Bitcoin's current stalemate, but it reveals a market driven by tactical volatility rather than a new wave of strategic demand. The engine that powered the previous cycle has sputtered, exposing the fragility of its support.

Year-to-date flows have been a textbook example of episodic support. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows surge past $1.5 billion at their peak, including a single-day spike of $825 million. This re-acceleration provided a clear tailwind for the early-year rally. Yet the pullback was just as sharp, with more than $1 billion in outflows over the past two sessions. This volatility is not a sign of deep, persistent demand but of a market reacting to noise-here, unsubstantiated reports of a potential supply overhang and broader macro concerns about rate cuts. The flows are a barometer of sentiment, not a structural floor.

Corporate treasury demand, often cited as a stabilizing institutional force, fits this same pattern. It provides a cushion beneath price, as noted in recent analysis. However, it remains episodic rather than persistently structural. This means it can offer a temporary bid during dips, but it does not guarantee sustained buying pressure. The market's recent action shows that when sentiment shifts, even this support can evaporate quickly.

The landscape is also evolving, but not in a way that yet signals a broadening of demand. The pipeline of new products is expanding, with faster SEC approval timelines on the horizon. Yet demand remains intensely concentrated. As The Block's analysis shows, bitcoin and ether products absorbed the bulk of flows in 2025, even as dozens of altcoin ETFs launched. This concentration means the ETF engine is still running on a single, high-octane fuel source. A wave of new products may eventually diversify the investor base, but for now, the market's fate is tied almost entirely to the fortunes of just two assets.

The bottom line is that ETF flows are a mirror, reflecting the market's current mood swings. They can provide a tactical boost, as seen in the early-year rally, but they lack the staying power to break Bitcoin out of its current range. Until flows become more consistent and demand broadens beyond the core Bitcoin/Ethereum duo, the ETF story remains one of volatility, not a reset to a new, stable growth trajectory.

Catalysts and Scenarios: What to Watch in 2026

The stalemate at $90,000 is a waiting game. The outcome hinges on a few critical metrics and events that will reveal whether the market is merely pausing for breath or laying the groundwork for a new trend. For investors, the path forward requires monitoring a specific set of signals that will confirm or contradict the bearish thesis.

The most immediate psychological threshold is the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis near $99,100. This level is more than a number; it's a litmus test for market conviction. A decisive, sustained break above it would signal that newer buyers are no longer operating at a loss, a prerequisite for a healthy accumulation phase. Without this confirmation, the market risks a relapse into defensive positioning, as recent price action suggests. The current setup-a price well below that benchmark-keeps the door open for a deeper correction.

Beyond price, the trajectory of corporate treasury demand will provide crucial insight into whether institutional support is becoming more structural. While this demand has been a stabilizing force, it remains episodic rather than persistently structural. The key will be consistency. Watch for a pattern of steady, long-term buying that can withstand volatility, rather than the stop-start flows seen in recent months. This would be a tangible sign that corporate balance sheets are integrating Bitcoin as a core strategic asset, not just a speculative one.

The primary risk, however, is that on-chain demand contraction persists. Despite the improved regulatory clarity and macro optimism, the fundamental engine of demand appears to be dismantling. As CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno notes, Bitcoin has already entered a bear market, with a structural contraction in demand expected to continue through 2026. This creates a powerful headwind. Favorable policy and macro developments may provide a floor, but they cannot automatically offset a market where the core drivers of buying pressure are fading. The scenario to watch for is one where price action remains capped, even as external conditions improve, signaling that the bearish on-chain fundamentals are still in control.

The bottom line is that 2026 will be defined by a tug-of-war between these forces. The market's next decisive move will likely be dictated by which signal breaks first: the psychological threshold of $99,100, the consistency of corporate buying, or the relentless pressure of deteriorating on-chain demand.