Bitcoin's $90,000 Hurdle: Technical Headwinds and Macro Uncertainty in November 2025

Bitcoin's price action in November 2025 has been a rollercoaster, oscillating between bearish despair and fleeting optimism. As of November 18, the cryptocurrency briefly dipped below the $90,000 psychological level before rebounding to $91,000, leaving investors to wonder: Can Bitcoin reclaim $90,000, or is this the beginning of a deeper correction? To answer this, we must dissect the technical indicators and macroeconomic forces shaping its trajectory.

Technical Analysis: A Bearish Setup with Oversold Bounce Potential

Bitcoin's technical profile in November 2025 paints a mixed picture. On November 17, the RSI fell to 33.79, an oversold level that historically signals short-term buying opportunities. However, the MACD remained deeply negative at -4,003, reflecting persistent bearish momentum. By November 18, Bitcoin had fallen below $90,000, a level that had previously acted as a critical support. While the price rebounded slightly, it continued trading below all major moving averages-the 7-day SMA at $97,747 and the 20-day SMA at $103,126. This divergence between RSI and broader trend indicators suggests a fragile market, where oversold conditions may not be enough to reverse a downward trend.

Key resistance levels at $95,850 and $93,800 remain untested, while immediate support sits near $90,800 and $90,000. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim these levels, further declines toward $86,500 and $88,000 could follow. On-chain data adds to the bearish narrative: 15,924 BTC (roughly $1.4 billion) flowed onto centralized exchanges between November 13–18, a sign of liquidity stress and potential selling pressure. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin futures-to-spot basis turned negative for the first time since March 2025, signaling reduced demand and heightened risk aversion.

Macroeconomic Catalysts: Fed Policy and Global Inflation Dynamics

The macroeconomic backdrop in November 2025 is equally complex. The U.S. Federal Reserve's December rate decision looms large. Market participants are pricing in an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, driven by weak labor market data and Fed Governor Christopher Waller's dovish comments. A rate cut would typically boost risk-on assets like Bitcoin, as lower borrowing costs reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. However, the delayed release of October and November CPI and employment data due to a U.S. government shutdown has created a "data fog," complicating the Fed's decision-making process. This uncertainty could prolong Bitcoin's volatility, as traders lack clear signals to anchor their expectations.

Globally, inflation trends remain a wildcard. In Egypt, inflation surged to 12.5% in October, prompting the central bank to maintain high interest rates. Brazil, meanwhile, kept its rate at 15%, the highest in two decades, as it grapples with inflation not yet returning to its 3% target. These regional dynamics highlight a broader theme: central banks are prioritizing inflation control over growth, a stance that historically weighs on Bitcoin's appeal as a speculative asset.

China's role is equally nuanced. While its 2023–2025 fiscal stimulus (e.g., 300 billion yuan in special treasury bonds) historically boosted Bitcoin prices, recent regulatory crackdowns-such as the October 2025 intensification of cryptocurrency bans-have caused sharp sell-offs. However, the absence of November 2025-specific policy changes in available sources means China's impact on Bitcoin remains speculative. Trade tensions with the U.S., including Trump-era tariffs, have also introduced volatility, but their influence on Bitcoin's $90,000 target is indirect and cyclical.

The Path to $90,000: A Delicate Balance

Bitcoin's ability to reach $90,000 hinges on two critical factors: a Fed rate cut and a technical rebound. If the December rate cut materializes, it could provide a short-term tailwind, especially if inflation data shows signs of cooling. However, Bitcoin's technical indicators-particularly its failure to hold above key moving averages-suggest that even a rate cut may not be enough to sustain a rally. The on-chain liquidity outflows and negative futures basis indicate that institutional selling pressure remains a headwind.

Conversely, a deeper correction below $86,500 could trigger a wave of long-term holder (LTH) selling, exacerbating the downturn. This scenario would be amplified if global inflationary pressures persist, as central banks are unlikely to pivot aggressively toward accommodative policies.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Scenario

Bitcoin's $90,000 target in November 2025 is a double-edged sword. Technically, the asset is in a bearish consolidation phase, with oversold conditions offering limited upside potential. Macroeconomically, the Fed's December decision could provide a lifeline, but the delayed data and global inflationary pressures create a fog of uncertainty. For Bitcoin to reclaim $90,000, it must first overcome its immediate support levels and attract renewed institutional demand. Until then, the market remains a battleground between short-term bounces and long-term bearish fundamentals.