Bitcoin's 6x Outperformance Over Gold Could Lead to $285,000 BTC

Bitcoin has historically outperformed gold, with more recent gains being sixfold. This trend has led to speculation about what could happen to Bitcoin's price if gold were to hit $5,000 per ounce.

Gold’s climb toward $5,000 per ounce has become a significant topic among hard-asset bulls, including Ed Yardeni and John Paulson. The weakening US dollar and rising global liquidity remain key drivers for both assets.

From March 2020 to March 2022, during the Federal Reserve’s ultra-loose monetary policies, Bitcoin’s price surged approximately 1,110%, while gold increased by only 35.5%. In the November 2022–November 2023 rally, coinciding with rising global money (M2) supply, gold gained about 25%, while Bitcoin jumped by 150% or nearly 6x outperformance.

If gold’s climb from its current value of around $3,265 to $5,000 equals 50% gains, and if history repeats, Bitcoin could grow by 300% or to a price of $285,000 per BTC. This aligns with analyst apsk32’s projected Bitcoin price target, which is based on a power law model normalized against gold’s market cap.

Frank Holmes, CEO of US Global Investors, sees gold heading to $6,000 during Trump’s presidential term, arguing that bullion has lagged behind the global M2 money supply surge. He links this bold target to Trump’s tariff policies, which he believes could weaken the US dollar by around 25%, boosting gold’s appeal alongside strong central bank demand and underweight investor positioning.

Holmes predicts that Bitcoin could break through its $97,000 supply overhang and climb to $120,000–$150,000 in the near term, with a longer-term potential of reaching $250,000 as adoption accelerates.

In late April, gold climbed to an all-time high of $3,500, up 33.35% year-to-date (YTD). It has corrected slightly to reach $3,237 as of May 5. In comparison, Bitcoin has risen merely 0.82% YTD. Some market watchers, including analyst Cryptollica, point to Bitcoin’s past behavior of following gold after a lag, suggesting a possible move toward the $155,000 level if it breaks out of its prevailing consolidation range.

Bitcoin’s 30% pullback from its record high of around $110,000 appears mild compared to past sell-offs of over 50%. This resilience strengthens its role alongside gold and raises the chance it could follow gold’s rally if market conditions improve.