El umbral de $60K del Bitcoin: ¿un momento crítico en 2025?

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 has sparked intense debate about the $60,000 level-a psychological threshold that could either act as a floor for institutional buying or a catalyst for deeper volatility. With the crypto market navigating a complex interplay of macroeconomic shifts, institutional adoption, and retail sentiment, understanding this juncture requires a nuanced analysis of on-chain data, institutional positioning, and divergent expert forecasts.

Tom Lee's Revised Outlook: Bullish Optimism vs. Internal Caution

Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat, has long been a vocal advocate for Bitcoin's long-term potential. By November 2025, he adjusted his year-end price target from $250,000 to a range "above $100,000," citing factors like the Bitcoin halving cycle, institutional adoption, and pro-crypto political shifts in the U.S. However, this optimism contrasts sharply with Fundstrat's internal strategy note, which warned of a short-term correction to $60,000–$65,000 by early 2026. This divergence highlights a critical tension: while Lee's public narrative emphasizes Bitcoin's role as a store of value and its potential to outperform gold, the firm's private messaging reflects a more cautious stance, acknowledging the risks of overextended bullish sentiment.

Lee's revised targets also underscore the challenges of forecasting in a market where ETF inflows and macroeconomic conditions often outpace price action. For instance, BlackRock's IBIT ETF attracted $25.4 billion in net inflows in Q4 2025 despite Bitcoin's 9.6% year-to-date decline, signaling that institutions are increasingly treating Bitcoin as a long-term strategic asset rather than a speculative trade. This shift in investor behavior complicates traditional price models, as capital flows now prioritize accumulation over short-term volatility.

On-Chain Metrics: A Mixed Signal at $60K

On-chain data provides further insight into Bitcoin's trajectory. The NVT (Network Value to Transaction Volume) Golden Cross has struggled to surpass previous peaks, with declining values suggesting a weakening bullish trend. Meanwhile, active addresses averaged 1.07 million daily in Q4 2025, and new wallet creation rose 4.3% month-over-month, indicating sustained retail participation. However, the $60K level is historically significant: it aligns with a resistance cluster where 7 million addresses previously bought Bitcoin, creating a potential "wall of sell pressure" as investors seek to break even.

The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio also paints a mixed picture. While Bitcoin's dominance has risen to 54.6%, reflecting a shift toward risk-on assets, the ratio remains below extreme overvaluation levels, suggesting the market is not yet in a bubble. This balance between caution and optimism is critical for assessing whether $60K will act as a support or a catalyst for further declines.

Institutional Positioning: ETFs and Quiet Accumulation

Institutional adoption has been a defining theme in 2025 Q4, with spot Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT and tokenized funds such as BlackRock's BUIDL driving capital inflows. Despite Bitcoin's price volatility, ETFs have attracted $164.5 billion in total net assets, representing nearly 7% of Bitcoin's market cap. This institutional buying has been largely "quiet," with major firms accumulating Bitcoin in reserves without publicizing their holdings-a trend that could stabilize the $60K level if sustained.

Moreover, the rise of tokenized real-world assets and decentralized perpetuals has expanded Bitcoin's utility beyond speculative trading, integrating it into traditional financial systems. These developments suggest that institutions are not merely speculating but building infrastructure to treat Bitcoin as a core asset class.

Retail Sentiment and the $60K Threshold

Retail sentiment, however, remains a wildcard. Younger investors, who allocate 25% of their portfolios to crypto compared to 8% for older demographics, are increasingly adopting altcoins and derivatives, signaling a shift toward diversification. While this could mitigate Bitcoin's dominance in a bearish scenario, it also introduces new volatility as retail traders react to macroeconomic cues.

The $60K level is particularly critical for retail psychology. If Bitcoin breaks below this threshold, it could trigger a wave of stop-loss orders and panic selling, especially given the historical significance of the level. Conversely, a rebound above $60K could reignite bullish sentiment, particularly if ETF inflows continue to outpace outflows.

A 50% Pullback: Opportunity or Crisis?

A 50% pullback from current levels (assuming a peak near $120K) would bring Bitcoin to $60K-a scenario that could test both institutional resolve and retail discipline. While such a drop might seem alarming, it could also represent a buying opportunity for long-term holders, particularly if macroeconomic conditions (e.g., Fed rate cuts) continue to favor risk assets. Institutions have already demonstrated resilience, with Tiger Research projecting a $200K target based on sustained institutional buying and favorable macroeconomic trends.

However, a deeper correction to $60K would require careful monitoring of on-chain metrics like the NVT ratio and active addresses. If these indicators show signs of exhaustion-such as a sharp decline in new wallet creation or a spike in liquidations-it could signal a broader market reset rather than a temporary dip.

Conclusion: Navigating the Crossroads

Bitcoin's $60K threshold in 2025 represents a pivotal moment for both retail and institutional investors. While Tom Lee's revised bullish forecasts and institutional ETF inflows suggest a strong case for support, the divergence between public optimism and internal caution at Fundstrat highlights the risks of overreliance on price targets. On-chain data and macroeconomic trends indicate that the market is neither in a bubble nor in freefall, but rather in a transitional phase where institutional adoption is reshaping Bitcoin's role in global finance.

For investors, the key takeaway is discipline: a 50% pullback to $60K could either be a catalyst for deeper volatility or a setup for a new bull cycle. The answer will depend on whether institutions continue to accumulate quietly and whether retail sentiment adapts to a more mature, diversified crypto ecosystem.