Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle and the Pressure Below $90,000: Cyclical Correction or Structural Shift?

Bitcoin's price action in November 2025 has reignited debates about the nature of its pullback below $90,000. , , sparking questions about whether this correction aligns with its well-documented 4-year price cycle or signals a deeper structural shift in market dynamics. This analysis examines historical patterns, macroeconomic forces, and sentiment shifts to determine if the current pullback is a cyclical retracement or a harbinger of prolonged volatility.

The 4-Year Cycle: Historical Context and 2025's Peak

Bitcoin's price has historically followed a 4-year cycle, marked by peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021, with 2025 emerging as another cycle high. According to , the recent pullback is best understood as a short-term correction rather than the onset of a bear market. They argue that the current market fundamentals-such as robust institutional adoption and spot ETF inflows-differ from previous cycles, where regulatory uncertainty and weaker macroeconomic conditions often exacerbated declines. For instance, long-term investors sold approximately 340,000 BTC , but this selling pressure was largely offset by institutional inflows into corporate treasuries and ETFs, .

The 4-year cycle theory suggests that Bitcoin's price typically consolidates after a peak before entering a new bull phase. Bernstein's analysis highlights that the current pullback mirrors historical corrections, such as , which was driven by U.S. tariff concerns under the Trump administration. If this pattern holds, according to market analysis.

Macroeconomic Forces: Fed Policy and Investor Sentiment

The November 2025 pullback coincided with a sharp decline in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December 2025, with odds dropping below 50%. This shift in monetary policy sentiment has historically influenced Bitcoin's performance, as accommodative rates tend to boost risk-on assets. The Fed's tightening cycle, combined with inflationary pressures, has created a risk-off environment, exacerbating Bitcoin's decline.

Institutional behavior further underscores this dynamic. BlackRock clients, for example, in Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime in November, signaling potential liquidation amid falling prices. Additionally, from spot Bitcoin ETFs during the same period compounded downward momentum, as ETF redemptions mechanically increased selling pressure. These outflows contrast with the post-2024 election inflows, highlighting a shift in institutional positioning.

Structural Risks: Infrastructure and Adoption Challenges

While cyclical factors dominate the immediate narrative, structural risks cannot be ignored. Recent disruptions to critical internet infrastructure-such as the Cloudflare outage that impacted platforms like PayPal and Uber-highlight vulnerabilities in the digital ecosystem underpinning crypto transactions. Such events raise questions about the resilience of Bitcoin's adoption in a world increasingly reliant on cloud-based services.

However, projects like Bitcoin Munari aim to mitigate these risks through fixed-supply models and transparent roadmaps, including the launch of a BTCM SPL token in January 2026. These initiatives reflect a broader industry effort to stabilize Bitcoin's utility amid volatility. Meanwhile, companies like BitMine Immersion (BMNR) continue to invest in Bitcoin mining and hashrate products, signaling ongoing institutional confidence in the network's long-term value.

Investment Outlook: Buying Opportunity or Deeper Correction?

The interplay of cyclical and structural factors presents a nuanced outlook. Bernstein analysts argue that the current pullback is part of a multi-year bullish trend, with Bitcoin's fundamentals-such as institutional adoption and periodic corrections-suggesting a new local bottom. The $80,000 support level, if held, could validate this view, offering a compelling entry point for long-term investors.

Conversely, structural risks-such as macroeconomic uncertainty and infrastructure fragility-could prolong volatility. If Bitcoin fails to retest , as some analysts predict, the correction may deepen. However, historical patterns and institutional resilience suggest that this pullback is more likely a cyclical retracement than a structural collapse.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's November 2025 pullback below $90,000 reflects a confluence of cyclical corrections and macroeconomic headwinds. While the 4-year cycle theory provides a framework for understanding this decline, the broader context of Fed policy, institutional behavior, and structural risks complicates the narrative. For investors, the key lies in distinguishing between temporary volatility and fundamental shifts. Given the historical resilience of Bitcoin's cycle and the strength of its institutional adoption, the current pullback may present a strategic buying opportunity-provided macroeconomic clarity emerges in the coming months.