Bitcoin's 30-day demand metric recovers but remains fragile, institutional flows weaken, and miners prepare to sell

Bitcoin's 30-day apparent demand metric has shown signs of recovery after weeks of suppressed interest, rising from its March-April lows. However, the demand remains in the red, indicating a fragile recovery. Investor confidence is unlikely to return fully without a push into positive territory.

Market sentiment has also turned cautious, with the Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index falling to 44.9%, dropping below the neutral zone and nearing bearish conditions. This deterioration in sentiment has mirrored the uneven recovery in price action, further reinforcing the market’s hesitance to commit to a strong bullish narrative.

Institutional flows, once a key pillar of Bitcoin’s strength, have begun to weaken. Spot ETF holdings dropped from 1.19 million BTC in March to just 1.115 million BTC in early April, breaking below the alert threshold of 1,116,067 BTC. This marks a break from the steady ETF accumulation trend that had dominated most of 2024, indicating a significant institutional pullback.

Miner activity has also shifted toward a potentially bearish stance. The Miners’ Position Index (MPI) surged nearly 40% in 24 hours, reflecting an increased outflow of BTC relative to its one-year average. Historically, such a rise indicates that miners are preparing to sell a portion of their reserves, either to secure profits or in anticipation of further downside.

On the technical front, Bitcoin has broken out of a descending trendline, sparking optimism for a bullish reversal. At last check, BTC hovered around $83,946—up 0.29% in the past 24 hours. A visible double-bottom pattern emerged in recent sessions, reinforcing bullish potential. BTC now trades between $76,572 support and $87,889 resistance—both key short-term levels.

For bulls to regain control, a clean break above $87,889 is necessary, which would open the path toward the $98,825 level. Until this resistance is decisively flipped, the broader market recovery remains tentative and highly reactive to macro and on-chain developments.