Vencimiento de opciones de Bitcoin por $28 mil millones: un dilema para un HODLer en un mercado volátil

The November 2025 Bitcoin options expiry, valued at $28 billion, has emerged as a pivotal event for risk management and macroeconomic positioning. With a put-to-call ratio of 0.35, bullish call positions dominate, yet the max pain price of $95,000-where the greatest number of options expire worthless-suggests a potential floor for downward pressure. Open interest is concentrated at the $80,000 strike, reflecting bearish positioning despite the current spot price hovering near $100,000. This structural imbalance creates a mechanical tug-of-war: as out-of-the-money calls expire worthless, dealers may be forced to hedge short-dated positions, amplifying volatility. For HODLers, the expiry is not merely a technical event but a catalyst for reevaluating exposure in a market increasingly shaped by institutional mechanics.

The Macroeconomic Crossroads: Bitcoin vs. Gold

While Bitcoin's options expiry highlights short-term volatility, broader macroeconomic trends are reshaping long-term positioning. Peter Schiff, a vocal critic of Bitcoin, argues that the cryptocurrency's purchasing power in gold terms has halved since November 2021, signaling a loss of value relative to traditional safe havens. Gold, meanwhile, has surged to record highs above $4,400 per ounce, forming a golden cross-a technical indicator where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day average-confirming a bullish trend. This divergence underscores a shift in capital flows: as the U.S. dollar weakens and interest rate cuts loom, investors are reallocating toward assets perceived as stable stores of value.

Schiff's bearish thesis hinges on the idea that Bitcoin, rather than serving as a hedge against fiat collapse, is the first asset to falter in a systemic downturn. His warnings gain traction as gold's golden cross attracts institutional and retail capital, potentially siphoning liquidity from Bitcoin. For HODLers, this raises a critical question: Is Bitcoin's current rally a speculative bubble, or a temporary correction in a broader shift toward digital scarcity?

Technical Weakness and the Golden Cross Paradox

Bitcoin's technical indicators paint a mixed picture. While the 50-day moving average (88,573.89) has briefly crossed above the 200-day average (88,272.62), this "golden cross" remains unconfirmed due to recent downward pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.326 and a negative MACD of -175.000 reinforce bearish momentum. In contrast, gold's confirmed golden cross-bolstered by geopolitical tensions and rate-cut expectations-has solidified its role as a macro hedge. This technical asymmetry highlights a paradox: Bitcoin's volatility, while attractive to traders, may deter long-term investors seeking stability.

Strategic Hedging and Positioning

For risk-averse HODLers, the $28B options expiry and macroeconomic shifts demand a nuanced approach. First, hedging with put options near the $80,000 strike could mitigate downside risk as max pain levels loom. Second, diversifying into gold-now in a golden cross-offers a counterbalance to Bitcoin's speculative exposure. Institutional rollover trades into March 2026 options have already inflated trading volumes, adding noise to short-term signals. This environment favors a "wait-and-see" strategy, where HODLers avoid overexposure until the expiry's mechanical pressures dissipate.

Conclusion: Navigating the Dilemma

Bitcoin's $28B options expiry is a microcosm of the broader market's tension between speculative fervor and macroeconomic caution. While the expiry's max pain and open interest dynamics may trigger short-term corrections, the long-term narrative hinges on capital flows between Bitcoin and gold. Peter Schiff's bearish warnings, coupled with gold's golden cross, suggest a world where traditional safe havens regain dominance. For HODLers, the path forward lies in strategic hedging, disciplined risk management, and a willingness to adapt to a macroeconomic landscape increasingly defined by fiat uncertainty.