Bitcoin 25 Delta Skew Drops to -6.1% Signaling Bullish Sentiment

Recent data from Glassnode indicates a significant shift in Bitcoin’s market sentiment, as evidenced by the 25 Delta Skew metric. The one-week skew has decreased from over 10% to 2.96%, indicating a reduction in short-term panic among traders. However, the longer-term outlook remains cautious, with 3-month and 6-month skews at -2.6% and -4.3%, respectively. This put-heavy volume profile suggests that while immediate fears have subsided, investors are still hedging against potential downside risks.

This trend aligns with broader market dynamics observed in 2024, where declining delta skew often follows volatility spikes, signaling a stabilization phase. The persistent negative skew may reflect structural uncertainties, possibly tied to institutional inflows. Such patterns suggest that while the market is not bracing for a major crash, it remains wary of range-bound trading into late summer.

Historically, similar skew behavior in June 2021 preceded Bitcoin’s consolidation phase, only to be followed by a risk-on rally post-halving. A sudden flip to positive skew could again catalyze a bullish surge, catching bears off-guard as put hedges unwind. With today’s date marking June 26, 2025, traders are advised to keep a close eye on this metric, as it could herald a pivotal shift.

Bitcoin’s 25 Delta Skew, a key indicator used to gauge market sentiment, has recently signaled a shift in the cryptocurrency landscape. This metric, which compares the implied volatility of a 25-delta put option to that of a 25-delta call option, normalized at the money, has moved to -6.1%. This change indicates that the implied volatility for call options is significantly higher than for put options, suggesting a bullish sentiment among market participants.

The shift in the 25 Delta Skew is a notable development, as it reflects a change in market dynamics. Traditionally, a neutral range for the skew is between -5% and 5%. The current reading of -6.1% indicates that the market is leaning towards a more optimistic outlook, with traders expecting upward price movements. This sentiment is further supported by the trend in options activity, where there has been a notable increase in call buying, with 59% of trades hitting the buy side. This trend is particularly evident in the ∆25 Puts, which have been trending down, while the ∆25 calls have been trading higher.

The downward trend in the 25 Delta Skew suggests that market participants are anticipating potential upside price movements. This is in contrast to a downward sloping skew, which would indicate potential downside price movement. The current upward slope in the skew suggests an upside bias and expectations of price increases. This shift in sentiment is significant, as it reflects a change in market dynamics and could potentially influence future price movements.

The shift in the 25 Delta Skew is also indicative of the broader market sentiment towards Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency market has been characterized by uncertainty in recent times, with mixed signals from various segments. However, the current trend in the 25 Delta Skew suggests that market participants are becoming more optimistic about the future of Bitcoin. This sentiment is further supported by the trend in options activity, where there has been a notable increase in call buying. This trend is particularly evident in the ∆25 Puts, which have been trending down, while the ∆25 calls have been trading higher.

In conclusion, the shift in Bitcoin’s 25 Delta Skew to -6.1% signals a change in market sentiment, with traders expecting upward price movements. This trend is supported by the increase in call buying and the upward slope in the skew, which suggests an upside bias and expectations of price increases. The shift in sentiment is significant, as it reflects a change in market dynamics and could potentially influence future price movements.