El repunte de Bitcoin en 2026: ¿Una reacción técnica o un punto de equilibrio estructural?

The market's early 2026 rally presents a classic contradiction. On one side, we have a powerful price surge. On the other, a persistent undercurrent of institutional skepticism. This is the core debate now unfolding, framed by analyst EliZ's stark thesis that Bitcoin is "structurally weak" with no "credible" signs of a bottom. His view cuts against the tide of recent gains, forcing a critical question: is this a genuine bottom forming, or merely a speculative rotation that lacks durable conviction?

The divergence is stark. While Bitcoin and Ethereum surged past $91,500 and $3,150 in early January, the rally's leadership was elsewhere. XRP, a major crypto, rallied nearly 29% on the week, outperforming even the top two. This pattern suggests the move may be driven by speculative rotation into smaller, more volatile assets rather than a broad-based, conviction-driven re-entry of capital. The strength in Bitcoin and Ethereum appears to be a secondary effect, piggybacking on a broader risk-on sentiment that has yet to fully embrace the flagship assets.

This speculative character is underscored by a sharp reversal in the institutional channel. Despite the price pop, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have shed roughly $1.1 billion over the past three trading days, nearly erasing January gains. This outflow dynamic directly contradicts the narrative of a strong, institutional bid underpinning the rally. It signals that even as retail and speculative flows drive prices higher, the very vehicles designed to bring stable, long-term capital are pulling back. The recent volatility in ETF flows-shifting from a $697.25 million inflow on January 5 to heavy redemptions-highlights a market in active, and potentially nervous, repositioning.

The bottom line is a market caught between two signals. The price action shows strength, but the institutional flows and the specific thesis of structural weakness point to fragility. This tension defines the central puzzle of 2026: whether the rally can build a foundation of conviction or if it remains a speculative episode vulnerable to a swift reversal.

Assessing the Structural Foundation

The technical rally now faces a critical test from the market's own health indicators. On-chain signals reveal severe divergences that undermine the notion of a structural bottom, pointing instead to a market in a state of heightened, and potentially fragile, excitement.

The most telling divergence is in Ethereum's network activity. On January 7th, the network recorded its highest growth of the decade. This historic spike in on-chain activity is a classic precursor to short-term price cool-downs, signaling extreme speculative enthusiasm that often precedes a pullback. For Bitcoin, the picture is more bearish. The Short-Term MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio remains stubbornly below 1, a key metric indicating that the majority of coins are still held at a loss. This means bears retain control of the market's immediate sentiment and profit-taking potential, creating a persistent overhang.

Futures markets show a more nuanced picture. After a period of contraction, futures open interest has stabilized and turned higher. This reflects early signs of renewed institutional participation and the rebuilding of derivatives engagement. However, this is not yet a structural shift. It represents a selective re-risking, a clearing of the decks after a period of deleveraging, rather than the sustained, conviction-driven positioning needed to support a new uptrend.

The market's structure remains vulnerable. With liquidity still thin, as noted by the persistent concerns about low liquidity, any rebound is inherently a technical reaction. The recent price action is highly susceptible to sharp, directional moves on relatively small order flows. This low-liquidity environment means the market lacks the depth to absorb large trades without significant price impact, making it a classic setup for volatility rather than a stable foundation for growth.

The bottom line is that the rally's technical strength is being built on a foundation of mixed and often contradictory signals. While derivatives activity hints at a return of institutional interest, on-chain metrics reveal the speculative froth and bearish positioning that typically precede corrections. Until the market demonstrates a clear shift in these underlying health indicators-until we see sustained profit-taking pressure ease, network growth normalize, and liquidity expand-the current move must be viewed as a technical reaction, not a structural bottom.

Counterpoints and Bullish Drivers

The bullish case for Bitcoin's 2026 rally rests on a mix of short-term catalysts and nascent institutional expansion. These drivers provide a plausible explanation for the recent price surge but face a critical test in sustaining a structural shift.

The initial momentum was fueled by a classic risk-on positioning cycle. Analysts note that investors are "adding digital gold to their portfolios amid positioning for the year ahead", a move supported by geopolitical tensions and a broader market reset. This narrative helped drive Bitcoin past $93,816 in early January, with the rally extending to a total market cap above $3 trillion. The move also saw a notable resurgence in speculative altcoin sectors, suggesting a broadening of risk appetite beyond the flagship assets.

Institutional interest is showing a more concrete, if still selective, step-up. While spot ETF outflows have been volatile, the filing of new ETF applications by major banks like Morgan Stanley signals a deeper penetration of traditional finance into investment wrappers, not just custody services. This expansion of the institutional channel is a positive structural development, providing a potential new source of demand. Corporate treasury demand also continues to offer episodic support, acting as a stabilizing floor beneath the price.

Yet, these bullish drivers are not yet sufficient to overcome the market's structural overhangs. The most immediate technical hurdle is the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which sits above $103,000. This level represents a major overhead supply zone. Without a decisive and sustained break above this resistance, the rally lacks the conviction needed to signal a true trend reversal. The market remains in a state of selective re-risking, where early institutional participation and corporate buying are clearing the decks but have not yet built a durable foundation.

The bottom line is that the bullish arguments are valid for explaining the recent technical reaction. However, their sustainability is the key question. The haven bid and year-ahead positioning provide a temporary catalyst, while new ETF filings indicate a longer-term expansion of the investor base. But until these forces can consistently overcome the overhead supply at the 200-day EMA and drive a sustained shift in on-chain and derivatives sentiment, the rally remains a testable bounce rather than a confirmed bottom.

Catalysts, Scenarios, and What to Watch

The market is now in a holding pattern, awaiting clear signals to determine if the recent rally is a fleeting bounce or the start of a structural reversal. The path forward hinges on a few critical catalysts and metrics that will confirm or invalidate the bottom thesis.

The primary catalyst is the reclamation of key technical thresholds. The rally's conviction is directly tied to Bitcoin's ability to decisively break above its major overhead supply. As noted, a large volume of overhead supply remains clustered across the upper range, with the 200-day EMA above $103,000 acting as a significant resistance zone. Until the price demonstrates a sustained break above this level, the move remains a testable reaction. The recent synchronised pullback across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, triggered by a wave of long liquidations, underscores how fragile this resistance is. The market's next directional move will likely be dictated by how it behaves at these key levels.

Watch for sustained positive ETF flows and a rise in the Short-Term MVRV above 1 to signal a true structural shift. The recent $1.1 billion ETF outflow over three days is a key risk that must be overcome. While the broader ETF narrative remains intact-with cumulative inflows of $56.65 billion and total assets of $117.66 billion-the recent volatility in daily flows shows a market in active repositioning. For a bottom to be confirmed, we need to see a sustained reversal of this outflow trend, indicating that the institutional channel is not just rotating but committing new capital. Concurrently, the Short-Term MVRV ratio must climb above 1, a signal that the majority of coins are no longer held at a loss and that bearish profit-taking pressure has fully eased.

Monitor derivatives data for signs of a shift in market control. The stabilization and subsequent rise in futures open interest, as noted in the on-chain insights, reflects early signs of renewed institutional participation. A stable base here could signal consolidation and a healthy rebuilding of derivatives engagement. However, the recent wave of nearly $250 million in long liquidations is a red flag. It indicates that bearish positioning remains potent and that any renewed selling pressure could trigger a deeper corrective phase. The market's control is still contested; a decisive shift would require both a break above resistance and a sustained clearing of this bearish leverage.

The bottom line is that the market is waiting for a confluence of signals. The technical break above resistance is the immediate catalyst. Sustained positive ETF flows and a rising MVRV ratio would provide the structural validation. Meanwhile, derivatives data will reveal whether the market is consolidating or remains primed for a violent reset. Until these conditions align, the rally remains a speculative reaction, not a confirmed bottom.