Objetivo de precio de Bitcoin para 2025: ¿$150,000 es realista?

The question of whether Bitcoin can reach $150,000 by year-end 2025 has become a focal point for investors, policymakers, and market analysts. With institutional demand surging, structural supply constraints tightening, and historical patterns aligning with bullish catalysts, the case for this ambitious price target is gaining credibility. This analysis examines the interplay of institutional adoption, ETF-driven capital inflows, post-halving dynamics, and seasonal trends to assess the feasibility of Bitcoin's $150,000 milestone.

Institutional Demand: A Structural Shift

The most compelling argument for Bitcoin's ascent lies in the explosive growth of institutional demand. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a cornerstone of institutional portfolios, with year-to-date inflows exceeding $25.9 billion as of Q4 2025. BlackRock's IBIT alone has attracted over $899 million in a single day, reflecting a broader shift toward Bitcoin as a strategic asset. These inflows are not merely speculative-they represent a recalibration of institutional capital allocation, driven by Bitcoin's growing role as a hedge against macroeconomic risks and a diversification tool in an era of volatile traditional markets.

SkyBridge Capital's Anthony Scaramucci has been a vocal proponent of this trend, reaffirming a $150,000 price target for Bitcoin by year-end 2025 during a recent CNBC appearance. His rationale hinges on the convergence of institutional adoption and regulatory clarity, which have transformed Bitcoin from a fringe asset into a mainstream financial instrument. Scaramucci's earlier projections of a $200,000 target by 2025 underscore the potential for even stronger momentum if institutional flows continue to accelerate.

Supply Dynamics: Post-Halving Scarcity and Market Resilience

Bitcoin's structural supply constraints further bolster the case for higher prices. The 2024 halving event, which reduced block rewards by 50%, has created a deflationary tailwind. Scaramucci's analysis highlights that if Bitcoin traded at $45,000 on the halving day (April 2024), it could reach $170,000 by mid- to late 2025. This projection aligns with historical post-halving patterns, where reduced supply has historically driven prices upward as demand outpaces issuance.

The Realized Cap-a metric that reflects the total value of Bitcoin held by addresses that have not moved in the last year-has surged to $1.1 trillion, signaling deepening institutional and long-term retail participation. This metric, combined with a 690% price gain in 2025, suggests that Bitcoin's market structure is evolving toward a more stable, less speculative asset class.

Seasonal Trends and Market Cycles

While institutional demand and supply dynamics form the bedrock of the bullish case, historical seasonal patterns add nuance. November has historically been a volatile month for Bitcoin, with an average gain of 42.5% from 2013 to 2025, though this figure is skewed by the 2013 outlier. November 2025, however, bucked this trend, posting a 17.28% decline due to macroeconomic uncertainty and ETF outflows. Analysts caution that this selloff does not necessarily signal a bear market but rather a bear-cycle pullback within an ongoing bull phase. According to analysts, this selloff does not necessarily signal a bear market.

Looking ahead, February 2025 could prove pivotal. Historical post-halving cycles show February delivering an average return of 40.74%, driven by reduced supply and renewed investor enthusiasm. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin could see a 22% to 63% gain in February 2025, providing a critical catalyst for reaching $150,000 by year-end.

Risks and Counterarguments

Skeptics argue that macroeconomic headwinds-such as geopolitical tensions and potential regulatory shifts-could dampen Bitcoin's momentum. Additionally, the November 2025 selloff highlights the asset's inherent volatility. However, Bitcoin's 2025 performance has already demonstrated resilience, with a 34% year-to-date gain and a record $732 billion in new capital inflows. The maturation of the Bitcoin market, marked by deeper liquidity and reduced volatility (realized volatility now at 43.0% vs. 84.4% in 2024), suggests that such corrections are becoming less disruptive.

Conclusion: A Conviction-Driven Outlook

The $150,000 price target for Bitcoin by year-end 2025 is not a pipedream-it is a plausible outcome given the alignment of institutional demand, structural supply constraints, and historical market cycles. SkyBridge's bullish projections, supported by record ETF inflows and post-halving dynamics, provide a compelling framework for near-term accumulation and long-term conviction. While risks remain, the structural forces reshaping Bitcoin's market structure-driven by institutional adoption and regulatory progress-suggest that the asset is on a trajectory toward mainstream acceptance. For investors, the key lies in balancing optimism with prudence, leveraging historical patterns and technical analysis to navigate the inevitable volatility.